After this round of financing, OpenAI is valued at 840 billion, SpaceX at 1.5 trillion, and Anthropic at 380 billion. If they all IPO this year, an IPO typically releases 5~10% of the floating shares. Calculated this way, the total fundraising scale would be between 110 billion and 150 billion. This scale is unlikely to cause a liquidity crisis.

However, the potential danger lies in the passive portfolio rebalancing by institutions after listing. These three companies are considered must-haves in their respective fields. For institutions to rebalance and hold them, they will inevitably need to reduce holdings in other stocks. The commercial aerospace sector where SpaceX operates is not large and can attract incremental funds, so it's unlikely to siphon off other companies in the same sector. But the AI software sector where OpenAI and Anthropic operate is already very large. With limited incremental funds, it can only rob Peter to pay Paul. Software stocks may continue to be impacted.

Of course, the cycle of this passive rebalancing is not that fast; it might only become apparent 3 to 6 months after listing. What needs to be considered is which companies are more likely to become the potential targets of siphoning after the OpenAI/Anthropic IPOs.

$iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF(IGV.US)