📊 After the earnings report, what is the market pricing in ahead of time?

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Zhipu AI's Surge

After Zhipu AI's earnings report was released, its stock price rose 31.94% in a single day, with trading volume expanding to 1.87 times its 20-day average. From a technical pattern perspective, this is a typical "breakout on high volume + event catalyst." However, what's more noteworthy is the pricing logic behind this round of gains.

2025 revenue was 7.24 billion yuan (2024: 3.12 billion), a year-on-year increase of +131.9%; gross profit was 2.97 billion yuan (2024: 1.76 billion), a year-on-year increase of +68.7%. Growth has been validated, and the pace isn't slow. Although the gross profit growth rate is lower than the revenue growth rate, at this current stage, this is more like: cost release during the expansion phase, rather than a business model issue. For early-stage AI companies, the market typically accepts the path of "scale first, optimize efficiency later."

Losses Widen, Essentially Due to Accelerated Investment

Annual loss was -47.18 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 59.5%), adjusted loss was -31.82 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 29.1%), and R&D expenses were 31.80 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of +44.9%). This set of data points to the same thing: the company is accelerating investment to secure a future position.

At this current stage, the market is more concerned about:

Whether the investment is translating into real demand growth

Whether commercialization capabilities are improving simultaneously

And judging from the revenue growth rate, this "investment → conversion" path has already begun to show results.

Structural Changes Are Improving the Long-Term Pricing Logic

On-premise deployment: 5.34 billion, accounting for 73.7%. Cloud deployment: 1.90 billion, accounting for 26.3%, a year-on-year increase of +292.6%.

Cloud business still accounts for a relatively low proportion, but its growth rate is significantly faster. At the gross margin level: overall gross margin declined, cloud business gross margin improved, while on-premise deployment gross margin fell back.

The change behind this is more critical: the company is shifting from "delivery-based revenue" to "platform/API revenue."

Once this structure reaches scale, it corresponds to higher gross margins, stronger repurchase capabilities, and a clearer valuation anchor.

From a Technical Perspective

The price is running significantly above MA10, MA20, and MA50, RSI(14) ≈ 68, approaching the overbought zone, and MACD momentum continues to expand.

The trend has been established. It should be noted that the position is not low, and short-term volatility may increase, but as long as the capital structure does not change significantly: the trend itself still has a foundation to continue. Large orders net inflow, medium orders net inflow, small orders net outflow. This is a relatively healthy structure: institutions are leading the pricing, while retail investors are in a following state.

In the early to middle stages of a trend, this structure usually corresponds to a sustained market move, not a one-time spike.

Sentiment Heats Up, But Not Out of Control Yet

Community discussions have become noticeably more active, with sentiments like "Can I still chase it?" and "Missed the rally (by selling)" starting to appear. FOMO is on the rise, but overall it remains within a comprehensible range.

Currently, it's closer to: a narrative reinforcement phase, not an extreme sentiment phase.

In Summary

This earnings report confirmed two things: growth has already occurred, and the structure is changing. The current market rise is more like pricing in the continuation of these two trends in advance.

The real key is not "how much it has risen," but whether these changes can be sustained. In the short term, there's no need to guess price points; what's more important is to see if several variables continue:

If there are still business catalysts ahead and capital maintains net inflows, the market is more likely to continue moving upward amid fluctuations. If the structure continues to tilt towards cloud/API and drives gross margin improvement, it will further strengthen the long-term pricing logic.