To be honest, when TSLA's delivery numbers came out today, my first reaction wasn't "it's over."

358,000 vehicles, about 15,000 below expectations. Looking at the number alone, it's indeed not great. But I didn't rush to check market sentiment. I used Claude to call a skill, pulled up the delivery data for the 16 quarters since 2021, created a tracking table, and also casually tallied the stock price performance on the day after each beat/miss.

A relatively intuitive conclusion is: historically, after Tesla missed delivery expectations, the average drop the next day was about 5.1%.

But looking only at the next day isn't very meaningful. The miss in 24Q1 was the most severe, dropping 13.2% the next day, but looking three months ahead, the stock price actually rose 28%.

So how should we understand this -3.8% miss? I think the core isn't the delivery itself, but rather how to judge the FSD China storyline. If there's substantial progress later, there might still be trading value at this current level. If it's just wishful thinking on an emotional level, then short-term pressure might not be cleared yet.

My own judgment leans towards a one-time disturbance, not yet a structural weakening. However, at this stage, I haven't added to my position either. I'll continue to track the subsequent catalysts and realization first.

The table screenshot is below. Data is more worth looking at than sentiment.

$Tesla(TSLA.US) $Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares(TSLL.US) $GraniteShares 1.25 Long TSLA Daily ETF(TSL.US) $GraniteShares 2x Short TSLA Daily ETF(TSDD.US)