Gold prices have fully priced in negative scenarios. The ChinaAMC Gold ETF (518850) is in a period of volatile consolidation, presenting opportunities for bottom-fishing.

The U.S.-Iran situation has been volatile, leading to significant fluctuations in oil and gold prices. On April 3, the price of Shanghai gold stood above 1,000 yuan per gram for the fourth consecutive trading day. During the U.S. stock market closure, SGE Gold 9999 opened higher in the morning session and then fluctuated within a narrow range. As of 13:35, the Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) rose by 0.84%.

Geopolitical tensions remain the core factor driving precious metal prices. Currently, gold prices have largely priced in negative scenarios. Unless there is a large-scale escalation of conflict or other special circumstances, gold prices are likely to stop falling and stabilize.

Professionals point out that in the short term, it is necessary to continue monitoring developments in the Middle East geopolitical situation. If the conflict continues to expand, stagflation logic will dominate the market, and gold prices may fall first and then rise; if the situation in the Middle East eases in the second quarter, gold prices will enter a phase of moderate recovery. In the long run, persistent safe-haven demand and central bank gold purchases will provide stable support for gold prices.