Next Week Preview: First Post-Conflict Inflation Data Arrives!

Next week is crucial! The US CPI is coming. Here's a preview of the market for next week,

First, the US 10-year Treasury auction takes place early Thursday morning. The essence of the Treasury auction is that the market is trading future inflation expectations and the probability of rate cuts with real money. For example, the Japanese government bond auction cooled off a few days ago, precisely because soaring oil prices drove up Japanese inflation and the likelihood of rate hikes. Therefore, the outcome of this US Treasury auction is also a very important indicator.

Next, the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. This will disclose internal discussions from the last meeting that were not made public. This time, the focus is on how they view the current oil price surge and the risks to future inflation and employment. The current ratio of hawks to doves, and whether they will mention balance sheet reduction policies, etc.,

Then, in the evening, besides the jobless claims and Q4 GDP, there's the February core PCE price index. As we all know, core PCE is the inflation data the Fed values most. However, this is data from before the conflict, so the market might not pay too much attention to it.

But the US March CPI inflation data to be released on Friday is different. This is the first inflation data since the conflict. Whether the oil price surge has started to impact US inflation depends on this data. If the geopolitical conflict and oil price surge are the process, then the data is the result of that process transmission. The result is what reflects the event's impact on the market. So don't say the data isn't important anymore. Market expectations are currently quite pessimistic. They predict inflation will rebound sharply to 3.4%. Remember, last month it was only 2.4%. If it really reaches 3.4% or higher, it will undoubtedly put immense pressure on the Fed. Must pay attention to this.

Alright, I'll update this preview every weekend. Thank you, everyone.

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