ALLW
OptionsGot tricked again yesterday. I found that even the experience from reviewing past trades might not be put into action. Yesterday, under the significant influence of external factors (gold up, dollar down, crude oil down, Nasdaq futures up, Bitcoin taking off) and the mediation of the "ceasefire agreement," I once again thought there could be expectations. Bets on a ceasefire by April 7th on Polymarket rose from 1% to 15%. Even though it didn't reach 50%, I was afraid of being late and missing out, because I feel that in this war some people want to fight, and some want to stop, which is also a huge contradiction. In the end, it was still a day of sideways movement, killing options.
Before Trump's speech, the general expectation was "ceasefire" and "peace talks." When expectations are aligned, there is a possibility of a reverse harvest. Next time, you can refer to the relevant predictions on Polymarket, which involve real money and are based on decentralized blockchain technology. Many senior U.S. officials and insiders participate, so it's definitely more timely than our free news and information apps. Before Trump's speech, I observed the betting volume for "U.S.-Iran ceasefire" before April 7th and April 15th, with an increase of basically less than 1%. If the probability is not above 50%, it basically won't happen. Additionally, I found that if an uncertain event has a probability above 80% 2-3 months in advance, it is highly likely to trigger a reverse harvest in the following month. If the date is imminent, it generally won't.
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