Analysis of the US-Iran War Situation and Market Impact (Updated 4/14)

2026.04.14 07:46

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Timeline

Date	Event
²⁄₂₈	The US and Israel launched airstrikes, hitting key targets such as Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed in the attack.
²⁄₂₈-	Iran retaliated massively against Israeli territory and US military bases in the Middle East with ballistic missiles and drones.
⁴⁄₇	The three parties reached a temporary agreement in Islamabad, announcing a two-week ceasefire.
⁴⁄₈	Donald Trump announced a ceasefire, Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and global stock markets surged.
⁴⁄₁₂	Negotiations broke down — Iran refused to abandon its nuclear program, and the US demanded "unrestricted access" to Iranian territorial waters.
⁴⁄₁₂	Donald Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran called "piracy."
⁴⁄₁₃	The US military blockade officially took effect, intercepting all vessels trading with Iran.
⁴⁄₁₄	A second round of negotiations may be held within days, with tensions remaining high.

Market Impact

Oil Price: Up about 50% since the war began, with Brent surging to $102/barrel and WTI to $104 after the April 13 blockade. The IEA called this "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market."
Stock Market: On April 8, the day of the ceasefire, the Dow Jones recorded its largest single-day gain since last year, but global markets weakened again after the April 13 blockade.
Inflation Risk: Persistently high oil prices are pushing up inflation expectations, which may prolong the high-interest-rate environment.

Transmission Path to US Tech Stocks

High oil prices → Rising inflation expectations → Interest rates remain high → Tech stock valuations face pressure.

This also partially explains why TSLA is down -10.9% over the past month and the overall US stock market is under pressure. It's not entirely a fundamental issue; geopolitical risk is the main source of pressure.

Key Focus Points

Whether a second round of negotiations will be initiated in the coming days.
The duration of the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
Whether oil prices can fall back below $90.
If a new ceasefire agreement is reached, a rebound similar to April 8 is expected.

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