Enduring value guardianIt's not because Microsoft went up that I think it's good; I also thought it was good when it was falling. I've just been waiting for an opportunity to add to my position. Even if it falls again later, I still think it's good. I added some in April last year, and embarrassingly, the price I added at back then was even higher than this time. Finally, on April 1st this year, it became my second-largest holding. Also, just because I think Microsoft is good doesn't mean all other software companies are good; Microsoft has its unique advantages.
$Microsoft(MSFT.US)'s current price is, if not at the bottom, very close to it.
The market periodically has all sorts of horror stories; last year it was Google's turn, this year it's Microsoft's.
In reality, Microsoft's downside is cushioned by its traditional enterprise software and cloud business, while its upside is unlocked by AI distribution and Azure expansion:
1. Microsoft's current cash flow machine is strong enough to weather the AI investment period.
2. Microsoft's enterprise distribution, identity, and compliance systems give it a natural advantage over smaller companies in AI commercialization.
3. Azure itself is a fundamental beneficiary of AI, and there's also Copilot seat penetration.
4. Even if AI doesn't meet the most optimistic expectations, Microsoft is not a company that "will be left behind by the times."
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