In this rebound of the Hang Seng Tech Index, who is the real leader?
Over the past two weeks, the Hang Seng Tech Index has been rebounding from its low on April 1st. Many friends have been asking: who is driving this rally? Let's break it down using Longbridge CLI data today.
1. First, the overall picture: How much has the index rebounded?
The Hang Seng Tech Index has rebounded from around 4600 points on April 1st to over 5000 points today, an overall gain of about 10%. However, behind this average, individual stock performance has diverged significantly—some have gained over 15%, while others have only gained 2-3%. For many people, the index has recovered a bit, but their money hasn't.
2. Top 3 leading sectors: AI narrative dominates
E-commerce/AI sector +15.6% — Alibaba-W (9988.HK)
Alibaba's rebound has been the strongest, rising from a low of HK$117.50 on April 1st to close at HK$135.80 on April 15th, a gain of 15.6%.
The key catalyst was Happy Horse's video generation model taking first place in a blind test arena, leading the market to reprice Alibaba's AI capabilities. Additionally, e-commerce fundamentals are showing marginal improvement, with trading volume exploding to 180 million shares on April 7th, clearly indicating capital inflow.
Local services +12.8% — Meituan-W (3690.HK)
Meituan rebounded from HK$78.70 to HK$88.75, a gain of 12.8%.
This rally isn't about the food delivery business, but a new "Physical AI Foundation" narrative—hard tech like drone delivery and autonomous delivery vehicles are being revalued by the market. Trading volume on April 7th was 106 million shares, double the usual.
Internet giants +6.6% — Tencent Holdings (700.HK)
Tencent rose from HK$485 to HK$517, a gain of 6.6%, relatively moderate.
Tencent's problem is that its AI narrative isn't compelling enough, its gaming business is still waiting for license catalysts, and the commercialization progress of Video Accounts is slower than expected. The upside is that its valuation is low enough, limiting the downside.
3. Following sectors: Rebound strength is average
Consumer electronics +5.0% — Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK)
Xiaomi rose from HK$30.52 to HK$32.06, a gain of 5.0%.
Car delivery data is acceptable, but the market is concerned about SU7 production bottlenecks and pressure on smartphone business gross margins, leading to average capital participation.
Short video +5.5% — Kuaishou-W (1024.HK)
Kuaishou rose from HK$44.60 to HK$47.06, a gain of 5.5%.
Advertising revenue recovery + AI video tool launch, but the competitive landscape remains the old problem, with Douyin pressure persisting.
New energy vehicles +2.3% — Li Auto-W (2015.HK)
Li Auto was the weakest in this rally, rising only from HK$70 to HK$71.60, a gain of 2.3%.
MEGA sales fell short of expectations, pure electric models are still preparing major moves, leading capital to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
4. Key observation: What is the nature of this rebound?
AI narrative is the main theme
Alibaba and Meituan gained more, both having AI/hard tech stories to tell. Purely internet-based Tencent and Kuaishou were weaker.
Severe divergence in capital flows
Alibaba's trading volume on April 7th was 180 million shares, 2-3 times the usual; Li Auto's volume was only 1.2 times the usual. Capital is clearly taking sides.
Valuation repair vs. fundamental improvement
This rebound is mainly about valuation repair (the drop in early April was too severe), not a real improvement in fundamentals. Q1 earnings season is coming soon, which will verify who is truly strong.
5. What's next?
Short-term: If US tech stocks continue to rise, the Hang Seng Tech Index still has room to follow, but divergence will continue.
Medium-term: Q1 earnings are a key variable. If Alibaba and Meituan's results can demonstrate commercial progress from AI investments, valuations can be pushed higher.
Long-term: The core logic for Hong Kong tech stocks still depends on the progress of AI implementation. Pure traffic-based business models will find it increasingly difficult to tell a compelling story.
Disclaimer: The above analysis is based on public data and does not constitute investment advice. The stock market carries risks; invest with caution.
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