Rate Of Return
CommemorativeIf it were Musk's CEO, and Musk's group of fans, then at such a moment, the stock price might surge after the earnings report;
But after Intel's crazy run for a while, it feels like many positive developments still won't be reflected in the earnings report, and even the guidance won't reflect these positives.
Then it's up to Old Chen's words, but he still feels quite pragmatic.
So, I tend to think that if the external environment remains unchanged, it will probably rise (or trade sideways at a high level) until before the earnings report, and then fall following the trend after the report.
Just a personal guess.
$Intel(INTC.US) The revenue/profit data in the earnings report actually doesn't matter much anymore. Laptop/PC sales have dropped by over ten percent this year, and Intel has production capacity issues with servers, which are estimated to be resolved only in Q2. According to the last earnings report, Intel is now "making and selling" server processors on the spot. However, processors have also seen price increases, which might alleviate the sales decline and capacity issues.
But price movements have little to do with these factors. The current stock price isn't pricing its current performance at all. If the earnings report mentions any progress with a certain client, or a deal with Musk, etc., it might still rally. Personally, I lean towards the stock dropping after the earnings report.
Finally, a word on the 18A yield issue. First of all, it's been in mass production for months, and the product is already on the market, so why worry about yield? If Panther Lake's yield is too poor, it simply couldn't be launched for sale. The Q2 18A version server product, Clearwater Forest, is about to launch.
The biggest problem with 18A has never been yield, but PDK, and IP not being suitable for foundry services. It's a process tailored for Intel to make CPUs. 18A has basically missed the process foundry selection cycle and is commercially a failure. We can only hope that 18AP and 14A can solve the PDK and IP issues and gain customer trust.
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