【True Insight Hong Kong Stock Masters】Hormuz Strait "Instant" Reversal, Ceasefire Agreement Exists in Name Only
Since the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes against Iran at the end of February 2026, the situation in the Middle East has experienced a dramatic "roller coaster" ride in mid-April. Just as the international community thought a brief dawn of peace had arrived, within just 48 hours, the opposing sides returned to the brink of war, and the world's key energy passage—the Strait of Hormuz—once again fell into a violent cycle of "blockade and counter-blockade."
On April 17, under U.S. mediation, Lebanon and Israel reached a 10-day temporary ceasefire. In response, Iran once showed goodwill, announcing the conditional opening of the Strait of Hormuz and gradually lifting some airspace restrictions. This triggered a drop in international oil prices and boosted market optimism.
However, this "fragile tacit understanding" was completely shattered on April 18. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy accused the U.S. of breaking its promises and continuing to maintain an "illegal blockade" on Iranian ports, then announced the resumption of full military control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf publicly warned: "As long as the blockade is not lifted, don't even think about navigation through the Strait of Hormuz." The situation deteriorated rapidly, with even merchant ships being fired upon and driven away by Iranian gunboats near the strait, putting the global energy supply chain on high alert again.
On the military front, the U.S. and Israel did not loosen the noose around Iran due to the brief ceasefire. U.S. Central Command claimed to have successfully intercepted and driven away more than a dozen Iranian vessels attempting to break the blockade. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum on April 18, clearly stating that if the upcoming second round of negotiations fails to reach an agreement, the U.S. will "start dropping bombs on Iran" and threatened not to extend the current ceasefire.
As the Strait of Hormuz crisis continues, the spillover effects of the conflict are backfiring on the Western camp that started the war.
Europe has become one of the main victims of this conflict thousands of miles away. Due to blocked shipping routes, Europe's aviation fuel reserves are running critically low. The International Energy Agency warned that if supply disruptions persist, a large number of flights may be forced to cancel. The UK even faces threats of shortages of food like chicken and pork, and soaring fertilizer prices, with food inflation potentially reaching as high as 9% by year-end.
In Asia, ASEAN countries, highly dependent on energy imports, are experiencing currency depreciation, intensified capital outflows, and downward revisions to economic growth forecasts. Analysis points out that although the battlefield is in the Persian Gulf, the economic shockwaves have already spread globally.
Besides the maritime standoff, the land battlefield is also precarious. In southern Lebanon, although nominally under a 10-day ceasefire, clashes between the two sides have never truly stopped. The Israeli military not only announced the establishment of a "Yellow Line" military buffer zone in southern Lebanon but also continued airstrikes on so-called "terrorist cells," confirming the death of a reservist soldier in the crossfire. Lebanon's Hezbollah, meanwhile, refused direct negotiations with Israel, vowing to retaliate firmly if Israeli forces cross the border.
The current situation shows a lack of the most basic strategic trust between the U.S. and Iran. Any tactical-level "ceasefire" or "opening" is highly vulnerable to collapsing instantly due to a single miscalculation or a tough statement. As the "deadline" for the expiration of the temporary ceasefire agreement on April 23 approaches, both shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the fragile calm in southern Lebanon could be shattered at any moment by a new round of gunfire.
Written by: Professor Li Huifen, Greater Bay Area Family Office Association
(I do not hold the above stocks)
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