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The likelihood of the second round of US-Iran talks collapsing is high, meaning the ceasefire agreement will not be extended.

Diplomatic relations have been downgraded because Vance did not attend.

Vance is the next Republican candidate and needs to maintain US credibility.

The US has a precedent of using false negotiations multiple times to deploy troops and set up formations, and troop numbers and battle lines don't lie.

The USS Bush and USS Boxer both directly bypassed the Strait of Gibraltar to avoid revealing their whereabouts and are currently about to arrive.