WTI crude oil rose 5% in a single day, VIX edged up slightly, and copper prices were largely flat. This phenomenon points to a geopolitical risk premium driven by supply shocks:
U.S. rare earths +13.2% and Sigma Lithium +10% reflect a pricing reassessment under the narrative of tariffs/resource sovereignty.
Cameco +2.5%; uranium's exposure to the energy security narrative is more long-term, with weaker short-term elasticity.
If the geopolitical situation continues to escalate, these three narratives will persist. If clear signals of diplomatic de-escalation emerge next, the premiums for rare earths and lithium may be given up before uranium's.
The key divergence is that copper prices have not strengthened in sync—the market is currently trading on supply-side shocks, not a broad return of risk appetite.
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