Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could cut off crude oil supplies at any time, leading to an inflation bomb. The Fed is held hostage by inflation, not only unable to cut interest rates but even needing to maintain high rates for a longer period. The next Fed Chair, Warsh, emphasized in a recent hearing that price stability is the Fed's talisman. This means the Fed would rather let the economy suffer the pain of high rates than cut rates prematurely before inflation is completely subdued! My judgment is that current risks far outweigh opportunities!