Xiaomi Corporation (01810.HK) Investment Notes

Core Strategy: Long-term value investing (3-20 years)

Operating Principles: Independent judgment, left-side accumulation, not swayed by trends.

I. Business Logic & Fundamental Observations

• Valuation Re-rating: As automotive production ramps up and the intelligent driving system iterates rapidly, the company has transformed from a pure hardware manufacturer into a full-ecosystem tech company. The current P/E is around 17-18x, placing it in a highly attractive valuation range among tech stocks.
• Buyback Signal: Monitor the company's frequent buyback actions around the HKD 31-32 level. This indicates management believes the price offers strong defensiveness.
• Technology Dividend: Focus on the real-world feedback of its autonomous driving technology in mass-produced models, which is the core asset supporting its long-term stock price premium.

II. Technicals & Market Sentiment

• Key Support Level: The stock price is currently testing support near the 30.260 (52-week low) level.
• Sentiment Game: The order book ratio and overall market sentiment show short-selling momentum hasn't been exhausted. There's strong psychological tug-of-war at the HKD 30 round-number level.
• Downside Potential: The market still has potential for an extreme sell-off. If it breaks below HKD 30, the HKD 28 zone below is a "golden pit" area offering extremely high margin of safety.

III. Trading Plan & Discipline

• Targeted Hunting: Persist in left-side accumulation near HKD 28, using market panic to collect low-priced shares.
• Cost-Averaging Principle: Only add to positions when the price deviates significantly from value or hits core support levels, aiming to substantially optimize the long-term holding cost structure.
• Holding Mentality: As long as the core growth logic (smartphone premiumization + automotive globalization) remains unchanged, severe volatility along the way is viewed only as an opportunity to lower costs. Once entered, execute the "hold for the long term" strategy across market cycles.

IV. Core Risk Warnings

• Monitor the drag on individual stocks from changes in overall Hong Kong market liquidity.
• Continuously track whether automotive delivery data meets market expectations.

Summary: Investing is the realization of your understanding. Don't listen to what others say, just follow your own pace. Maintain discipline at the HKD 30 level, patiently waiting for the market to offer the extreme price of HKD 28.

$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)