$Tesla(TSLA.US)

The market still gives it a 380x P/E ratio. The core issue is not "whether it's profitable now," but rather:

The market is pricing the "future options," not the current automaker.

I. "The road is long,"

1. FSD / Robotaxi: Still in pilot phase, far from profitable

- FSD now: - ~1.1 million users in North America, $99/month subscription

- Annual revenue ≈ $1.3 billion, net profit possibly $400–500 million

- Compared to Tesla's current market cap: almost negligible

- Robotaxi: - Only small-scale trial operations in a few cities like Austin

- No safety driver, nationwide rollout, commercial profitability: at least 2–3 years away

2. Optimus humanoid robot: Just about to start trial production, profits are far off

- Summer 2026: Small-batch trial production (thousands of units per month)

- 2027: Only then might large-scale mass production begin

- Cost: Target $20,000 per unit

- Price: Estimated $35,000–60,000

- Truly contributing significant profits:

After 2028–2030, or even later

None of these businesses are profitable now; they're even burning money.

II. But why does the market still dare to give it a 380x P/E?

Because Wall Street values Tesla by splitting it into two parts:

1. Automotive business: Given an extremely low valuation

- Traditional automaker P/E: 5–10x

- Tesla's automotive business: The market only gives it 5–8x

- Meaning: The car business is not valuable now, even a drag

2. The real source of valuation: The "option value" of future AI businesses

- FSD + Robotaxi + Optimus

- Institutional calculations: This part accounts for 60–80% of the current market cap

- Logic: It doesn't matter if it's not profitable now; as long as it can create a trillion-dollar market in the future, it's worth a sky-high price now.

III. What exactly is everyone "waiting" for?

Not waiting for profits, but waiting for signals of "whether it can succeed."

1. Waiting for the "capability inflection point" of FSD / Robotaxi

- Waiting for: Fully driverless, safe and reliable, scalable across cities

- Once it appears: - Valuation logic shifts from "story" → "actionable business"

- P/E can drop from 380 to 80–150x, but the stock price may not necessarily fall

2. Waiting for the "mass production and cost inflection point" of Optimus

- Waiting for: Stable mass production of Gen3, cost truly dropping below $20k

- Waiting for: Factory usability, willingness of manufacturing/logistics to buy

- Once verified: - The market will directly value it based on a future 1 million units/year

- Profit per unit $5,000–10,000

- Annual profit $5–10 billion → given a 30–50x P/E → $1.5–5 trillion market cap

3. Waiting for confirmation of the "AI platform" narrative

- The market wants to confirm:

Tesla ≠ Automaker

Tesla = Physical AI company (autonomous driving + robots)

- Once the narrative is solidified: - Valuation benchmarked against: NVIDIA, Google, AI chip companies (P/E 30–80x)

- Not Ford, Volkswagen (5–10x)

- As long as the AI story remains, even if automotive profits decline, the P/E will be hard-pressed to truly fall to 300

- Once the AI story breaks (e.g., FSD fails, Optimus is delayed), the P/E will directly drop to 20–50x

→ Stock price falls 70–85%

A 380x P/E is not pricing the current Tesla; it's pricing Tesla in 2030.

According to this earnings report and Musk's statements, the story is still intact, and the valuation can continue.