出栏还差三斤
2026.04.28 09:24

To be honest, I'm not very excited about tomorrow night's earnings report; in fact, I'm a bit tired.

The company itself is fine—cloud is growing, advertising is growing, users are growing—there's no doubt about that. The problem lies in market sentiment. People's pockets are getting tighter, and their patience for "future returns" is getting shorter. In the past, if you said AI would monetize in three years, the market applauded. Now, if you say three years again, people in the audience start rolling their eyes. So I guess the most interesting thing tomorrow night won't be the earnings numbers themselves, but those few phrases in the conference call about the pace of returns. Whoever can tell a story about "seeing AI revenue accelerate starting in the second half of this year" will be the winner. Whoever continues to talk about vision, paint a rosy picture, and emphasize the long term will get beaten—even if the earnings themselves are flawless.

$Meta Platforms(META.US) is high-risk, high-reward, $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) are relatively stable, and $Amazon(AMZN.US) depends on the consumer side. I don't plan to go heavily into any single one; I'll lower my positions and wait for the results, then decide how to play the next day after seeing the market action. On nights like this, it's not about courage, it's about position management.

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