In the last two trading days before the holiday, watch more and move less!

$Shanghai Composite Index sh000001$ There are only two trading days left until the May Day holiday, and the disclosure of annual and quarterly reports is also in the final countdown to the finish line. The market performance in the past two days has really welded the word "reality" onto the screen—daily batch limit-downs, all stocks with earnings below expectations or even directly blowing up!

Just today, there are still 54 stocks lying on the limit-down board! The market now is extremely simple: if you have solid earnings, you get a rise; if you have no earnings or dare to blow up, you get directly slammed to limit-down without a second word, with no talk about sentiment, as capital only cares about the hard fundamentals of real money.

Tomorrow is the last cash withdrawal day before the holiday, and there will definitely still be significant selling pressure in the market. It's highly likely that we'll have to wait until tomorrow afternoon for bullish funds betting on post-holiday market trends to slowly enter the market.

Why has the market been so grinding in the past two days? Frankly, there are three main reasons:
First, the concentration of earnings bombs at the end of the month has made capital afraid of stepping into pitfalls, pushing risk aversion sentiment to the max;
Second, the May Day long holiday is right around the corner, and a lot of capital doesn't want to hold stocks over the holiday, so they cash out early and wait on the sidelines;
Third, trading volume today shrank again compared to yesterday, and it's highly likely to continue shrinking tomorrow and the day after. Without money, it's hard to have a big rally.

Therefore, the index before the holiday is highly likely to be oscillating and bottom-grinding. Hoping for any strong breakout is basically impossible. Don't set your expectations too high. For a decent breakout, we'll have to wait until after the holiday when all earnings are disclosed and all bombs have been cleared.

But don't panic either. The index hasn't actually broken down at all. The support at the 10-day moving average is still solid. As long as sectors with earnings support are holding up, the market won't face any major risks. After this wave of earnings disclosures is fully completed and all uncertain bombs are cleared, the pent-up bullish sentiment from May will definitely be released. At that time, the market style is highly likely to shift completely. The post-holiday recovery rally is still worth our patient wait.

Let's also talk about a few thematic directions:

First, the technology direction
The semiconductor chips that surged yesterday are naturally seeing differentiation in the current continuously shrinking volume market. Most stocks still gave a high-opening premium in the morning session. Although there was a pullback from intraday highs, the core leading stocks didn't show any extreme negative feedback. Stocks like Moore and Zhongwei still closed firmly in the green. And think about it, the semiconductor sector just had a collective surge yesterday, and there are still many industry catalysts expected in the second half of the year. From a rhythm perspective, it's impossible for it to peak in one step.

On the other hand, computing power leasing, relying on solid positive earnings feedback, strengthened against the trend again today. Hongjing and Litong, which I've repeatedly mentioned before, one directly hit the limit-up and closed, the other also ended with a big gain, completely unaffected by the broader market.

In terms of computing hardware, aside from CPO and liquid cooling entering adjustment due to Tianfu and Yingwei's earnings falling short of expectations, other sub-sectors have remained very active. Sectors like PCB and copper foil, their sector indices are still in a solid uptrend structure, and no top divergence signals have appeared. So, in the short term, don't blindly guess the top; just follow the trend.

After the post-holiday earnings disclosures are complete and market concerns are alleviated, the main battlefield for the rally will likely still be technology. And look at the external markets. Recently, US tech giants have been hitting new highs one after another—NVIDIA, Intel, Micron, SanDisk, Google are all surging. Our A-share tech sector has always had strong linkage with the US market. If the external markets keep hitting new highs so strongly, there's no reason for our A-share tech not to follow.

Second, commercial aerospace
Recently, the National Space Administration directly made a heavyweight statement, planning to prospectively layout space computing power and space manufacturing. Overseas, Meta is also planning space-based solar power for data centers. This means space-based photovoltaics, satellite communications, and space computing power are directly experiencing dual resonance from both domestic and international policies and industries.

Institutions also predict that the market size for direct satellite-to-phone connectivity will experience explosive growth in 2026. Commercial aerospace is now a fiercely contested track for global tech giants, and policies are continuously being strengthened. Later, everyone can continue to pay attention to opportunities in this direction on dips.

Third, electronic cloth
This is a core, essential material in AI computing hardware, now 恰好 catching the dual tailwinds of low-dielectric technology breakthroughs and accelerated domestic substitution. Supply chains for NVIDIA and Huawei are in the process of certification and volume ramp-up. Whether it's 7628 standard cloth or Low-Dk specialty cloth, both are experiencing simultaneous volume and price increases. Price increases within the year are generally between 80% and 170%, which is very exaggerated.

Institutions predict that the demand for low-dielectric electronic cloth could surge to 168 million meters by 2026, with a supply-demand gap persisting throughout the year. Manufacturers' delivery lead times are getting longer, and downstream buyers have to pay first before receiving goods. The industry's high prosperity is real, with no 水分. Electronic cloth has now become the most 紧缺 upstream link in the AI computing power industry chain. The 涨价 cycle is clear. Later, everyone can focus on opportunities from leading companies' technological breakthroughs and capacity releases.