
Novices look at the income statement, experts look at the cash flow statement and the balance sheet.
So, how to look? Methodology:
1. First, see if the profit is supported by cash:
Operating cash flow / Net profit attributable to parent company
Cash received from sales / Revenue
Whether accounts receivable deteriorate along with revenue, or actually decrease when revenue grows
2. Then, see if the position of working capital is correct:
Accounts receivable decrease + Cash collection strengthens: Real demand, strong bargaining power
Inventory rises + Construction in progress rises: Indicates the company is preparing for future deliveries
Contract liabilities / Prepayments rise: Indicates orders are starting to turn into cash and production actions
3. Next, see if capacity is already expanding:
Construction in progress
Fixed assets
Cash paid for the purchase and construction of fixed assets
4. Finally, see if the expansion is risky:
Net debt
Changes in short-term/long-term borrowing
Whether financial expenses are starting to significantly erode profits
The logical chain is as follows:
Real orders -> Cash comes back first -> Accounts receivable don't deteriorate -> Inventory and construction in progress rise -> Capital expenditure surges -> Subsequent continued capacity expansion materializes
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