U.S. Stock Market Review for April 28
Today, OpenAI's setback dealt a heavy blow to the semiconductor and AI concepts, dragging down the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. The semiconductor sector's straight-line rally is just one step away from ending!
The SOX semiconductor index $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX.US)
fell 3.6% today, with all 30 constituent stocks declining.
The magnitude of individual stock gains and losses mainly follows their stock characteristics; those that rose more previously also fell more during the decline;
Conversely, NVDA $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) rose more slowly, so its decline was also smaller, which is also the reason I previously said it would be more resilient during a pullback.
Since last week, I have been reminding everyone daily not to chase the semiconductor rally. The market won't keep going up in a straight line forever; it will always find a reason to pull back!
If you still accidentally bought at the peak, there's still a chance to break even.
The fastest chance to break even:
If tomorrow's earnings reports from the four major tech companies release positive news, maintain high capital expenditure in AI, and AI brings significant revenue growth to existing businesses, then you can break even tomorrow, and the rally can continue 😄😄;
Otherwise, this semiconductor rally will end, forming a top, requiring a pullback to regain momentum. Friends who bought at the peak will have to endure the cold wind for a while longer 🥶🥶
OpenAI
Its problems were already shared during yesterday's review, but placed at the end, so many friends might have missed it.
Failure to meet 2025 revenue growth and user activity targets will lead to future funding shortages. Without money, all the computing power contracts previously promised by Altman will have to be discounted or even defaulted.
Affected Companies
Most closely partnered: ORCL $Oracle(ORCL.US) and SoftBank. They have both bet their entire fortunes on it. If OpenAI falls behind in future development, these two are expected to suffer badly;
Other partners: AMD, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN are also affected, but they all have multiple businesses and AI model partnerships. Even if OpenAI falls, as long as the AI market doesn't shrink, the impact won't be as severe.
Impact on the AI Narrative
I judge the impact to be limited!
It's mainly OpenAI's own problem, unable to lead in the competition with Gemini and Claude. AI development hasn't slowed down; the AI industry is still growing rapidly.
This can also be proven by valuations:
In mid-2025, OpenAI's valuation was $800 billion, and Anthropic's was $300 billion;
Now, OpenAI's valuation is still $800 billion and might shrink, while Anthropic's valuation is $1 trillion;
Google's stock price goes without saying; driven by Gemini, it has already hit new highs.
From my personal usage:
I only subscribed to ChatGPT before, but now I'm subscribed to Gemini and Claude as well. I've abandoned ChatGPT for several months until last week when I picked it up again for image generation.
Personal experience is limited for reference. If you're interested, you can investigate the usage among your friends.
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