极限趋近于你
2026.04.29 10:05

Today, I searched for the stock price of $POP MART.HK — HK$153, which has fallen by more than half from last year's high. Behind a national phenomenon-level IP, the stock has been severely discounted by the market — think about that. It's not that Labubu isn't popular anymore; it's still hot domestically and overseas. The problem is that the valuation anchor the market was originally willing to give was "Labubu can still accelerate further," but the reality presented is "stabilized, but not accelerating further." When growth rate drops from "surging" to "normal growth," the valuation multiple gets cut by the market. Friends who have followed Moutai, Haitian, and Nongfu Spring over the past year have seen this script; there's nothing new. What the market is really worried about is just one thing — this company relies too heavily on the Labubu IP alone. The other sub-brands aren't picking up the baton fast enough. But on the flip side: after falling by half, the HK$153 level is no longer a high valuation. Downside risk is compressed. Even if just one new IP succeeds, it could trigger a recovery. It's a position with "decent odds." I'm not heavily invested personally, but below HK$140, I'd take a small position — not betting on a new IP blockbuster, but betting that the old hen Labubu can still lay eggs for another year and a half.

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