$AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US) Sigh, this is tough.

I did some calculations. Trading volume has been shrinking over the past couple of days, and Rakuten has way too many shares on hand. You can check my previous articles; I've analyzed a lot of this already.

To add one more thing, stocks like ASTS and $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) are both super high-volatility plays.

If Rakuten wants to find someone to take over their position, I estimate the stock price would have to be discounted by 50%, meaning back to around $100. They'd need to offer at least half the price for any institution to be willing to take it on as a block trade. I reckon even if someone takes it, they'd gradually sell it off, but not as aggressively.

They have over 27 million shares! They started selling when it was around $100. Even now, their average price is still above $75. Even if it eventually drops to just above $50, they'd still be getting an extra 20% on the sale. Do the math: over 27 million shares times $20 is how much money? If it were me, I'd also sell in the secondary market, not look for a buyer.

The main thing is, all of this is still compliant. The company can't interfere.

So the outcome is: the more they sell, the fewer buyers there are below. They can only drive the price lower. The volume shrinkage is getting worse. Everyone is waiting for them to finish selling before entering. No one wants to bear that much pressure, buying in at higher costs like $10, $20 above the current price. For big money, every $10 is a lot of money, even every $5, every $1 is a lot.

Then, the company dropped from around $100 to the $60s, a direct reduction of over 30%. The market cap shows it too, basically falling from nearly $40 billion to around $26 billion. A drop to $20 billion isn't out of the question.

Also, many positive catalysts are basically in late May and June, like satellite launches. But that brings up SpaceX. Did you guys analyze their recent earnings report? Was there a problem or not? If there was, that's another negative. And this one is the most serious because it's a negative for the entire space sector.

Looking at it now, they've probably sold around 10 million shares. Wait for the announcement in a couple of days. I'll post if there's an announcement, otherwise forget it.

The scariest thing is they still have around 17 million shares left, estimated. That's the most frightening part. Especially since that includes about 14 million shares later on that don't require disclosure. Now we're watching these 6+ million shares. See if there's a bounce after the announcement comes out.

Can't say for sure, but getting back above $90 within two months shouldn't be a problem. But this period will really be hard to endure. Plus, the overall market is too high now. Ugh! Observed for a year, and this is how it treats me after I buy in.. 😂 Even if I hadn't sold the small rocket (referring to RKLB?), it wouldn't have been this bad. This thing is about to grind away all my profits for the year. 🤕