Chevron and ExxonMobil edged slightly higher, while the 2x long crude oil ETF saw a larger rebound:
The current narrative trigger is the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, with WTI approaching $100. Cross-verifying six macro indicators: crude oil is rising, copper prices are slightly down, VIX is slightly contracting, credit spreads show no significant change, the US dollar is basically stable—the overall picture is closer to "geopolitics pushing up oil."
If the situation eases next, this logic will quickly become invalid; if geopolitical tensions persist, the probability of oil prices staying high will increase accordingly. Both paths have a not-low probability and are likely to be volatile in the near term, so positions need to be sensitive to reversal signals.
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