$AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US) Calling on Jason:
I recently compared $AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US) and $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US). My conclusion is: if we only look at "future certainty," RKLB is clearly higher than ASTS; but if we look at "endgame imagination space," ASTS might be more extreme.
RKLB already has a relatively clear business closed-loop. Q1 2026 revenue was about $200 million, a year-on-year increase of 63.5%; GAAP gross margin was 38.2%; backlog exceeded $2.2 billion; Q1 signed 31 new Electron / HASTE contracts, as well as 5 Neutron launch contracts. It's not just betting on a new rocket, but is supported by multiple curves: Electron, HASTE, Space Systems, defense supply chain, and the future Neutron.
So the core question for RKLB is: the valuation is expensive, but the commercial path is already visible. Its verification points are relatively clear: whether Neutron can make its first flight and commercialize, whether Space Systems can continue to expand, whether defense orders can convert, and whether the gross margin can ultimately translate into operating profit.
ASTS is completely different. Its story is bigger: direct satellite connection for ordinary phones. If successful, it could become a space extension layer for global operator networks. This endgame is very attractive. However, revenue validation is still early. Q1 2026 revenue was about $14.7 million, with full-year guidance of $150–200 million; the company aims for about 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by 2026. It needs to simultaneously prove satellite mass production, continuous launches, on-orbit performance, regulation, operator commercialization, user demand, and unit economics.
So I would differentiate them like this:
RKLB is high-valuation certainty growth + a Neutron option.
ASTS is an extremely high-ceiling communications network option + launch/commercialization binary risk.
If you ask which one is more like a core space industry company that can be tracked long-term, I lean towards RKLB.
If you ask which one has greater narrative elasticity, ASTS is stronger.
But ASTS currently relies more on the fulfillment of future milestones, and its valuation tolerance for error is also lower.
Personal observations only, not investment advice.
— Jason 🍎
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