Currently, among the Federal Reserve seats, only Warsh is relatively dovish, while the others are hawks + swing voters. Therefore, it is extremely difficult for the Fed's interest rate decision to get 7 votes in favor, unless there is some data support, such as inflation data (CPI and PCE). In terms of data: energy accounts for 6% to 10% of the weight in the U.S. CPI. For every 10% increase in oil prices, the overall U.S. CPI rises by 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points.

For inflation data to come down, oil prices must be brought down.

For oil prices to fall, the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran must be successful, and the Strait of Hormuz must pass smoothly. Otherwise, inflation won't come down, which will affect the midterm elections. There are less than 5 months until the midterm elections.

Trump is in danger...

On the contrary, the role of the East is currently very crucial...

Trump now holds many chips but is currently under attack from both front and rear.

Trade! Trade! Trade!