$Space Exploration Tech(SPCX.US)

SpaceX's valuation is undoubtedly overestimated, but it's important to consider that the placed shares only account for about 3% of the total share capital, and the previously locked-up shares will only be gradually unlocked later.

The first batch of shares will be unlocked around mid-August, coinciding with the Q2 earnings report. During this period, there will be institutional position building, retail buying, as well as leverage funds, index passive funds, etc. With only this limited supply available in the market, there is indeed a scarcity factor.

Based on this perspective, I designed a model using Claude to roughly simulate several possible stock price trajectories (sorted by low, medium, and high market sentiment). For your reference.