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PostsI'm not going to be an ostrich: If it hasn't completed "de-cyclicalization," where would I be wrong?
But I have to clarify the other half. This is "the cycle being extended," not "the cycle has disappeared." Two real risks are weighing on it:
First, that 86% gross margin is indeed a ceiling, not a floor. If that floor isn't as hard as the CEO claims, falling from such a height would be disastrous. A floor, without being tested by a real cooling of demand, is just a paper promise.
Second, and more fundamental—capital expenditure is on the rise. Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung are planning to expand production together in 2027 and 2028. Historically, the very mechanism that ended each memory cycle was precisely "everyone expanding production together." The capacity planted today is the seed of oversupply the day after tomorrow.
$Micron Tech(MU.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK)
美光单季净赚 280 亿美元，但这份炸裂财报里最重要的，不是超预期
就在两个小时前，天还没亮，我爬起来听了美光（Micron）的电话会直播——一边听，一边盯着财报，一边在想一件事。先说财报本身，一句话：炸裂。这一个季度，美光营收同比涨了三倍多，单季净赚约 280 亿美元，毛利率冲到 86%，还顺手把下个季度的指引拉到 500 亿——比华尔街原本估的高出一大截。等天亮，各大平台大概率会被一个词刷屏：超预期。营收超预期、利润超预期、毛利率超预期。这个词没说错...
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