ATFX Forex Outlook: RBNZ Decision, SK Hynix ADR Issuance, Fed Minutes
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This Wednesday: RBNZ Rate Decision
This Wednesday at 10:00, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce its interest rate decision structure. The market expects a 25 basis point hike, raising the benchmark rate from 2.25% to 2.5%. Both New Zealand and Australia face high inflation risks. Australia has already raised rates three times, with a cumulative increase of 75 basis points; New Zealand has yet to take any action, keeping rates unchanged.
In the first quarter of this year, New Zealand's core CPI annual rate was 3.2%, higher than the 2.8% in the same period of 2025 and above the 2% moderate inflation standard. In the second quarter, affected by high oil prices due to the US-Iran conflict, the inflation rate is expected to continue rising. New Zealand's current 2.25% benchmark rate is already significantly lower than the 3.2% inflation rate. Maintaining unchanged rates may erode market confidence, leading to NZD depreciation. This week's rate hike action will alleviate market concerns about high inflation risks.
This Friday: SK Hynix IPO
South Korea's memory chip leader, SK Hynix, will IPO on the Nasdaq exchange this Friday. Its listing status in South Korea will be retained, achieving a dual primary listing in both markets. The US IPO will be issued in the form of ADR (American Depositary Receipts), with every 10 ADRs representing 1 ordinary Korean share. This issuance is expected to raise approximately 28 to 29.4 billion USD, and if completed, will become one of the largest ADR issuances in history.
SK Hynix is the world's second-largest DRAM supplier, a top-five NAND flash memory player, and holds an absolute dominant position in the HBM market, making it a core supplier in the AI computing power industry chain. Especially HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), which is a hard requirement in the AI computing power market. SK Hynix covers nearly half of the production capacity, with an extremely solid industry position. This is the core reason why SK Hynix's US listing is attracting significant attention from the global capital market.
This Thursday: Fed and ECB Meeting Minutes
This Thursday at 2:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; at 19:30, the European Central Bank will release its monetary policy meeting minutes. Historically, while the content of the Fed and ECB minutes is important, it generally does not have a significant impact on USD, gold, and silver market trends, as the core ideas of the minutes have already been digested by the market on the day of the rate decision.
The core value of the two sets of minutes this Thursday lies in fully revealing the decision-making basis of the Fed and the ECB. Focus on the statements in the minutes regarding inflation, employment, and the Middle East issue, which can serve as a basis for analyzing when the Fed might initiate its first rate hike in the second half of the year.
This Wednesday: EIA Monthly Energy Report
This Wednesday at 00:00, the EIA will release its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report. If the report contains data exceeding expectations, it may impact crude oil market trends. Pay close attention to the report's details on the impact of the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz on crude oil supply, especially changes in average daily transportation volume. On the same day at 22:30, the EIA will release commercial crude oil inventory data for the week ending July 3rd. The previous value was -3.775 million barrels, marking the tenth consecutive week of negative values, indicating a tight supply-demand balance. Considering the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran and the gradual resumption of commercial activities in the Strait of Hormuz, the weekly EIA data may turn positive soon.
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