1. First, let's clear the air: The 'profit' this time might be fake.

I'll point out a pitfall first, so you don't get fooled by the numbers tomorrow.

Google's earnings per share (EPS) this time are likely to look exceptionally good, even absurdly so — Bank of America has forecasted $8.38 in profit, nearly three times the mainstream market expectation of around $2.9.

Why such a big difference? Because Google holds over 10% stake in the star AI company Anthropic, and Anthropic's valuation has surged recently. According to accounting rules, this paper unrealized gain must be included in Google's profit for this quarter.

In plain terms: This profit is 'paper wealth,' not real money earned from the core business. Cheering for one-time paper gains is like celebrating a salary raise because your house value went up — two completely different things.

So at times like these, it's crucial to shift your eyes away from 'profit' and look at the number that doesn't lie: how much real capital they are actually pouring into the future.

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