Preview of US Stock Earnings Volatility This Week: The Big Four Tech Giants Take Turns 'Taking Over the Streets', AI Hardware Chain Collectively Faces the Exam

This week is the peak week of the Q2 earnings season. Microsoft and Meta after hours on Wednesday, Apple and Amazon after hours on Thursday—the four tech giants are squeezed into just two days, compounded by the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, making it a rare dense schedule for the year.

What actually sees the most concentrated volatility is semiconductors: from compute IP/edge (Arm, Qualcomm) to memory/HBM (SK Hynix), to storage (Seagate), and then to equipment (Lam Research). The entire AI hardware supply chain takes its exam in the same week, with implied volatility generally above 13%.

Tech Giants:$Microsoft(MSFT.US) (System Software/Cloud), $Meta Platforms(META.US) (Social Platform), $Amazon(AMZN.US) (Cloud & E-commerce), $Apple(AAPL.US) (Consumer Electronics)

Semiconductors/AI Hardware:$Arm(ARM.US) (Chip IP & CPU), $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) (HBM Memory), $Seagate Tech(STX.US) (AI Storage), $Lam Research(LRCX.US) (Equipment), $Qualcomm(QCOM.US) (Mobile & AIoT Chips), $Amkor Tech(AMKR.US) (Packaging & Testing), $KLA(KLAC.US) (Inspection Equipment)

FinTech/Crypto:$Robinhood(HOOD.US)$Coinbase(COIN.US) $SoFi Tech(SOFI.US) $Strategy(MSTR.US) $Paypal(PYPL.US)

Payments/Content/Gaming:$Visa(V.US) $Reddit(RDDT.US) $Roblox(RBLX.US)
Automotive:$Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US) (Electric Vehicles), $Ford Motor(F.US)

Energy/Pharma/Consumer/Aerospace:$ExxonMobil(XOM.US) $Chevron(CVX.US) (Energy), $Abbvie(ABBV.US) (Pharmaceuticals), $Starbucks(SBUX.US) $Coca Cola(KO.US) (Consumer), $Boeing(BA.US) (Aerospace/Defense)

1.$Seagate Tech(STX.US) — The Dark Horse of AI Storage This Year
FY26 Q4: Tuesday 07/28 After Hours · Implied Volatility ±14.3%
Wall Street Expectations: Revenue consensus around $3.49 billion, Adjusted EPS around $4.73.

• Recent Developments: Up over 100% YTD, driven by surging demand for large-capacity nearline hard drives in AI data centers and tight HDD supply; focus is on gross margin, contract renewal prices, and full-year shipment guidance.

2.$Microsoft(MSFT.US) — Is Capex Worth It?
FY26 Q4: Wednesday 07/29 After Hours · Implied Volatility ±7.2%
Wall Street Expectations: Revenue around $87.7 billion (+14.7% YoY), EPS around $4.22 (+15.6%).

FY26 Capex plan is approximately $190 billion (+61% YoY), mainly invested in data centers and AI infrastructure; Azure growth guidance is about 39–40% (constant currency), with Copilot commercial paid seats breaking 20 million (+250% YoY). The focus has shifted from "growth speed" to "is this massive spending actually worth it?" Especially if FY27 Capex guidance continues to rise, it could suppress sentiment, along with the drag on margins from increased depreciation.

3.$Meta Platforms(META.US) — Burning Cash for AI, Can the Ad Business Hold Up?
FY26 Q2: Wednesday 07/29 After Hours · Implied Volatility ±8.4%
• Wall Street Expectations: Revenue around $60.3 billion (~+27% YoY), EPS around $7.22.

Similarly, full-year Capex guidance was raised to $125–145 billion (from $115–135 billion); AI recommendation systems improve content relevance and engagement on Facebook/Instagram, with the core ad business remaining robust; daily active users for AI glasses tripled YoY;

However, Reality Labs reported an operating loss of about $4 billion for the quarter. Patience for "burning cash for growth" and the continued losses of Reality Labs are two major variables, with the focus on whether ad growth can continue to outpace Capex expansion.

4.$Arm(ARM.US) — Repricing of Open Architecture + Low-Power CPUs
FY27 Q1 (Calendar Q2): Wednesday 07/29 After Hours · Implied Volatility ±15.2%
Wall Street Expectations: Revenue guidance around $1.26 billion (±$50 million, median ~+20% YoY), EPS around $0.17.

The company is extending from IP licensing to self-developed chips, launching the Arm AGI CPU for AI data centers; Armv9 and CSS architectures drive up royalty rates and increase penetration of Arm chips in data centers. Watch v9 royalty rates, licensing pace, and the execution and customer relationships involved in transitioning from an IP vendor to a self-developed chip maker.

5.$Apple(AAPL.US) — Re-validation After China Approves AI
FY26 Q3: Thursday 07/30 After Hours · Implied Volatility ±4.3%
Wall Street Expectations: Revenue around $108.9 billion, EPS around $1.89, beating expectations for four consecutive quarters.

Chinese regulators approved Apple Intelligence (integrating Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen Qwen), pushing shares to new highs; the market recognizes its "asset-light AI" approach—edge-first, leveraging existing compute, protecting margins; quarterly services revenue is expected to grow ~14% YoY. The market is watching the sustainability of sales driven by iPhone 17 upgrades, as well as the timing for mid-to-long-term catalysts like the new Siri and foldable screens.

6.$Amazon(AMZN.US) — Can AWS Acceleration Validate Capex?
FY26 Q2: Thursday 07/30 After Hours · Implied Volatility ±7.2%
Wall Street Expectations: Revenue around $196.7 billion, EPS around $1.82.

AWS grew 28% in Q1, the fastest in 15 quarters, with some analysts expecting acceleration to 32–33% this quarter; 2026 Capex plans rose from ~$131.8 billion in 2025 to ~$200 billion; high-margin advertising business and the earlier Prime Day contributed incremental gains, but free cash flow plummeted to ~$1.2 billion.

Massive Capex is suppressing free cash flow, so the market needs AWS acceleration to validate that this money is well spent. Investors need to pay attention to these two key metrics: AWS growth rate and retail profit margins.

7.$Coinbase(COIN.US) — Share War in the Crypto Off-Season
FY26 Q2: Thursday 07/30 After Hours · Implied Volatility ±10.6%
Wall Street Expectations: Revenue consensus around $1.29 billion; GAAP EPS around -$0.36 (mainly dragged down by impairment of crypto assets measured at fair value, with significant divergence in adjusted metrics).

This quarter is the crypto off-season (Bitcoin fell ~14%, Ethereum ~25% from April to June), but the company's spot and derivatives trading share hit a record high of 8.6%; stablecoin revenue was $305 million (vs. $274 million last year); derivatives volume was up 169% YoY; prediction market business is expected to reach $100 million in annualized revenue by year-end. However, the stock price is down ~36% YTD.

This stock is highly beta-linked to crypto trends! Off-season trading volume and regulation are major variables. Continue tracking progress in diversifying transaction and subscription service revenues.

Key Macro Events This Week

The FOMC rate decision on Wednesday is the focus of the week; Q2 GDP initial reading and June PCE prices are released on Thursday, carrying the heaviest data weight; Friday also features the Q2 Employment Cost Index (ECI). With earnings and macro combined, the sources of volatility this week will be denser than usual.

FOMC sets a heavy tone, meeting giant Capex validation + storage supply/demand. What do you think of this week's volatility? What stocks are Longbridge community members holding now? With high volatility expectations for many earnings reports, how would you operate? Come join the discussion in the comment section!

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Above is a compilation of public data and sell-side views, not investment advice. Implied volatility is derived from option pricing, reflecting only the two-way hedging magnitude by market makers before earnings-driven events, and does not indicate buy/sell direction; items marked * are near-month contracts, containing more time value and higher implied volatility, and cannot be directly compared with weekly metrics. Data source: Longbridge AI. Market data as of last Friday, 2026-07-24.