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The Guidance Killed Intel, Not The Quarter.
2026.10.29 (EST) After-Market
Revenue, operating profit and EPS all beat, and the data centre line grew 78%. Then fourth-quarter revenue and margin guidance came in well below the street.

Intel

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Dolphin Research

Dolphin Research
Dolphin Research

INTC 3Q26 First Take: Headline results broadly in line. The key issue is a broken Q4 guide.

Q4 revenue guided to $15.0–16.0bn, down 3–9% QoQ, well below the Street (~$17.0bn).

GPM guided to just 37%, down 600bps QoQ, also below the Street (41.8%).

Mgmt explained:

1) Israel Fab 28 incident to hit Q4 revenue by approx. $300mn (10nm server products) and GPM by ~200bps. The Kiryat Gat site suffered an Oct. explosion that killed two employees and halted production for ~2 weeks.

2) Cliff-like PC drop, with client CPU shipments expected to fall >20% QoQ in Q4.

Last quarter, the company delivered a major beat (~$2bn).

This quarter, it not only failed to beat, but issued a down QoQ guide that is plainly weak, which is quite disappointing.

The post-earnings sell-off is a direct response to a guide below expectations.

Beyond that, it reflects fading hopes that Intel would keep DC scaling while holding PC steady.

Based on the Q4 guide, the PC leg has already buckled (down >20% QoQ), driven by: a) memory price hikes and DRAM capacity prioritized to HBM; b) weak demand and deeper channel destocking.

With PC demand this soft, Intel may struggle to push through client CPU price increases. From here, focus shifts to server CPUs and external foundry progress to see if they can beat expectations and rebuild confidence. 更多详细信息，欢迎关注海豚君后续内容。$Intel(INTC.US)

Community voices

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)market is overreacting to to intel’s earnings call. One is still turning around and the other has remarkable cashflow. To me this dip is yet another buying opportunity. Only a matter of time before it returns to its ath

dhighstakes
dhighstakes

The $Intel(INTC.US) (down 17% in after hours) guide down should not be extrapolated on $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) (down 1.3%).

Bottom line: Main issue is PC demand. If there is pricing pressure on DCAI it suggests they are likely losing share.

The company is calling like it is, demand is slowing because of high memory costs.

That’s a read on how customers fell about their chips. If customers were demanding them, high memory costs would have little impact on demand.

Nvidia has been beating numbers despite high memory costs and Jensen was bullish last week at GTC Berlin. $SpaceX(SPCX.US), $Meta Platforms(META.US), $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) all said Capex in CY27 will be signfnalty higher than 2026. The Street is looking for 42% growth compared to $82% this year.

Source: Gene Munster

Gene Munster
Gene Munster

$Intel(INTC.US) Happy to share my previous Intel trade, which resulted in a 12.94% gain. With Intel’s earnings approaching, I’m interested to see how the company performs and how the market reacts to its latest results. Every trade is a valuable learning experience! @Captain's Treasure

Rainwijaya
Rainwijaya

$Intel(INTC.US)

Intel reports October 29, with analysts expecting approximately $16.5 billion revenue and $0.40 adjusted EPS, reflecting strong year-over-year growth. Investors will focus on AI server demand, PC sales, 18A manufacturing progress, and margins. Strong guidance could boost shares, but execution risks and valuation remain concerns.

$Tesla(TSLA.US)$Meta Platforms(META.US)

Pingu
Pingu

📌🇺🇸 Apparently when I looked at last session’s screen, it is like a call for buyers market, especially those whom have missed the stocks such as INTC, SPCX, SKHY and so many more. But for me, I am holding on those stocks which may be dipping, for long term.

Next to add, is that when those stock prices which have already been all time high are more than not, to be likely to be adversely affected at this fragile period. Next, will be expecting a price re-correction along with buyers sentiment. IF there is no better time than now, then it may be the time!

Besides, CXMT’s DRAM progress already shown 2 days of adversely dragged down the 3 biggest key players. As such, the market is awaiting for Anthropic pre-IPO to gauge any good sign for a more balancing trend for now.

Period!

Vt3
Vt3

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