Federal Reserve

Fed-related news tracking

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Events

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2026

May19

Trump orders encouragement for Fed to expand fintech access

President Trump has issued an order encouraging the Federal Reserve to expand fintech access, a move aimed at preventing traditional banks from blocking the 'Digital Asset Market Clarity Act' and fostering institutional crypto adoption [][]. This follows a reported shift in Trump’s personal portfolio toward tech and crypto investments in Q1 2026 [].

Interest Rate Swaps Show Over 80% Probability of Fed Hiking by End of 2026

Interest rate swaps now indicate an 80% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by the end of 2026 []. This shift is driven by April CPI rising to 3.8% [], soaring oil prices above $109 due to the Iran conflict [], and projections of Q2 inflation annualizing at 6.89% [].

Yesterday at 22:33

8.2

7 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

Yesterday at 22:33

May13

NY Fed Plans for Repurchase and Reserve Management Purchases

The New York Fed announced that from May 14 to June 11, 2026, it will conduct approximately $16.3 billion in reinvestment purchases and $10 billion in reserve management purchases . This represents a notable decrease from the previous month's $25 billion reserve management target .

3 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

05/14/2026 03:10

May12

Traders Adjust Expectations for Fed Rate Hike by Year-End

Traders have reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by year-end to 25%, down from 33%, following data showing consumer prices rose 3.8% annually . This shift follows a period of heightened hawkishness where markets were pricing in aggressive moves ahead of leadership transitions .

05/12/2026 20:43

8.2

4 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

05/12/2026 20:43

May11

Fed Maintains Rates Unchanged in June with 97.7% Probability

As of May 12, 2026, CME FedWatch data shows a 97.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% in June []. This follows an April meeting where the Fed held steady despite a highly divided 8-4 vote—the most contentious since 1992—driven by concerns over $100+ oil prices and 3.3% CPI inflation [].

05/12/2026 07:07

8.8

7 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

05/12/2026 07:07

Investors Await Inflation Report to Assess Fed's Next Move

Investors are awaiting a critical U.S. CPI report to gauge the Federal Reserve's next moves as 30-year Treasury yields hit 5.03% amid high oil prices and Middle East tensions [citation:1, 2, 7]. With Brent crude rising to $114, market participants are weighing the possibility of future rate hikes, particularly under the potential future leadership of Kevin Warsh [citation:4, 7, 12].

1 sources

05/11/2026 10:01

May10

CME predicts Fed interest rate policy for next two meetings

As of May 11, 2026, CME FedWatch data indicates a 93.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% in June, with an 88.8% chance of holding steady through July [][]. This hawkish shift is driven by rising inflation and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East impacting energy costs [][].

May08

Fed Announces Probability of Interest Rate Policy in June and July

CME FedWatch data indicates a 94.9% probability that the Fed will maintain rates in June and an 88.8% probability for July . This follows April nonfarm payrolls of 115,000, which exceeded expectations despite a cooling trend .

05/08/2026 20:59

8.2

7 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

05/08/2026 20:59

May06

Fed Maintains Rates in June with 93.5% Probability

CME FedWatch data indicates a 93.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% in June, with an 86.5% chance of holding steady through July [][]. This follows the Fed's April decision to pause amid $120/barrel oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [][].

05/07/2026 06:05

8.0

6 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

05/07/2026 06:05

May05

US Unemployment Rate Rises as 64,000 Jobs Added; Fed Delays Rate Cut

In November, U.S. unemployment rose to 4.6% as the economy added only 64,000 jobs following a government shutdown . Despite this labor softening, the Federal Reserve has postponed interest rate cuts, citing resilient economic growth, rising core PCE inflation (3.2%), and energy price pressures linked to international conflicts .

8 sources

05/06/2026 07:25

May04

CME Predicts Future Fed Rate Cut Probability

Latest CME FedWatch data indicates a 95.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in June, with the likelihood of a hold remaining above 86% through September . This shift follows reports of surging consumer prices and ongoing inflationary pressures from the conflict in Iran . Major institutions like Morgan Stanley and Barclays have pushed their rate cut expectations into 2027, citing a resilient labor market and high PCE forecasts .

05/05/2026 06:11

8.2

6 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

05/05/2026 06:11

May01

Fed Keeps Interest Rates at 3.50-3.75%

The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50-3.75% in an 8-4 vote, marking the highest level of dissent since 1992 . While Chair Powell presided over his final meeting, the committee cited high inflation driven by energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East as reasons for the hold . Dissenters were split, with one member seeking a cut and three others opposing any easing bias .

05/02/2026 03:15

8.4

7 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

05/02/2026 03:15

Apr29

Fed Maintains Benchmark Interest Rate and Suggests Future Rate Reduction

The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.5%–3.75% for the third consecutive meeting [][]. While the official statement retained a bias toward future rate reductions, the committee showed its largest internal division since 1992, with four members dissenting []. Officials upgraded the characterization of inflation to 'significantly high' due to energy price pressures linked to Middle East tensions [].

3 sources

04/30/2026 04:23

Fed Maintains Interest Rates Unchanged, Dollar Strengthens

The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% in a heavily divided 8-4 vote, the largest dissent since 1992 . The dollar strengthened significantly as rising oil prices from the U.S.-Iran conflict boosted safe-haven demand, while the yen weakened past 160, sparking intervention fears . Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh faces a hawkish internal environment as Jerome Powell prepares to exit .

8 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

04/30/2026 02:31

Fed Maintains Interest Rates Unchanged; Market Sees Small Chance of Cuts This Year

The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at the 3.5% to 3.75% range, signaling a cautious stance due to persistent inflation and geopolitical risks [citation:3, 13]. Market expectations for rate cuts have drastically cooled, with futures now reflecting a high probability of rates remaining unchanged through at least June, and dot plot projections shifting from three cuts down to just one for the year [citation:2, 25, 26].

04/30/2026 02:04

8.2

04/30/2026 02:04

US Interest Rate Decision in April 2026 is 3.75%

The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.75% in April 2026, meeting market expectations . This 'hold' occurs against a backdrop of sticky inflation, energy price shocks, and a resilient labor market, with the Fed remaining cautious ahead of Chair Jerome Powell's departure on May 15 .

04/30/2026 02:00

8.2

5 sourcesoutlets including AASTOCKS

04/30/2026 02:00

Fed Keeps Rates Steady, Council Member Milan Favors Cuts

The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% , but the decision was marked by Governor Stephen Milan’s preference for a rate cut [citation:1, 12]. Milan continues to advocate for 3 to 4 cuts this year, targeting a neutral rate as low as 2.5%, arguing that labor cooling and housing disinflation will outweigh temporary energy price spikes from Middle East tensions [citation:13, 24, 25].

Fed Policy Disagreements Hinder Morgan Stanley Exemption Approval

Internal policy rifts within the Federal Reserve, led by Vice Chair Michael Barr, significantly delayed Morgan Stanley’s waiver application for organizational restructuring [][]. While the majority eventually approved the waiver, Barr warned that using low-cost federal deposit insurance to fund high-risk activities sets a dangerous precedent [][]. This friction occurs despite Morgan Stanley's strong Q1 2026 performance and its efforts to lobby for reduced capital requirements under revised Basel III rules [][].

4 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

04/29/2026 21:05

Tech Stocks Boost Index Futures, Market Awaits Fed Decision

U.S. and European futures are edging higher, driven by strong earnings expectations for mega-cap tech companies despite looming FOMC policy risks . While tech leads, the market remains cautious due to volatile oil prices and geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran . Investors are specifically awaiting Jerome Powell’s press conference for clarity on future interest rate paths .

7 sources

04/29/2026 18:37