Federal Reserve

Fed-related news tracking

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2026

Feb03

Fed March Rate Cut at 9%, Odds of Maintaining Rates Are High

According to CME FedWatch data on February 4, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March has fallen to 9%, with the likelihood of rates remaining unchanged at 91%. This reflects a significant shift from mid-January when the probability of a March cut was over 20%. The change follows the Fed's January decision to hold rates steady and cautious commentary from officials, who have pointed to a resilient economy and the need for more data before acting. Analysts and traders now widely expect the first rate cut to be delayed until at least June.

8 sources

4 Hours ago

Jan29

Fed Pauses Rate Cut, US Stocks Unmoved, Other Markets Volatile

The U.S. Federal Reserve decided to pause its rate cuts, keeping the federal funds rate unchanged, a move that was widely anticipated by the market. Consequently, U.S. stock indices showed a muted reaction with minimal changes. However, other markets experienced greater volatility, with shifts in Treasury yields, gold prices, and the U.S. dollar index. The Fed's statement noted that economic activity is expanding at a "solid" pace, an upgrade from the previous "moderate" assessment, and emphasized that future decisions will be data-dependent. Despite the surface calm in equities, some analysts point to significant underlying volatility in individual stocks.

Fed Maintains Interest Rate at 3.6%, RBI May Cut Later in 2026

The US Federal Reserve maintained its key interest rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range, pausing after a series of cuts, citing an improved economic outlook which it now describes as expanding at a "robust" pace. While two officials dissented in favor of a cut, the market now largely expects the Fed to hold rates until at least June. This decision may give the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) flexibility to hold its rate in February but consider cuts later in 2026, pending fiscal signals from the upcoming budget. The Fed's future path is uncertain, with political pressure and the end of Chairman Powell's term in May adding complexity.

Jan28

Fed Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged and Buys Treasury Bills

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range, halting a series of three consecutive rate cuts. The decision was passed with a 10-2 vote. The policy statement reflected a more optimistic economic outlook, describing activity as expanding at a "solid" pace and removing language about downside risks to the labor market. This signals a more balanced approach to the Fed's dual mandate. While inflation is still considered "slightly high," the committee's tone suggests no immediate urgency for further cuts, with markets now anticipating the next move is unlikely before June.

6 sourcesoutlets including AASTOCKS

01/29/2026 03:19

Fed Maintains Interest Rate

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range, a move that was widely expected and ends a series of three consecutive rate cuts from late 2025. The accompanying statement noted a shift in economic assessment from "moderate" to "solid" expansion and removed language highlighting downside risks to the labor market, indicating a more balanced view on its dual mandate. Despite two officials dissenting in favor of a rate cut, the market now anticipates the Fed will remain on hold until at least June.

Fed Keeps Interest Rate at 3.75%

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, pausing a series of three consecutive rate cuts from the previous year, a move that was in line with market expectations. The accompanying statement signaled a more optimistic economic outlook, describing economic activity as expanding at a 'solid' pace and removing previous language about downside risks to the labor market, indicating a more balanced view of its dual mandate. As a result, market participants now anticipate the Fed will not adjust rates again before June. The decision was not unanimous, with two officials dissenting.

Jan17

Fed to inject $55.36 billion in liquidity into the market

The Federal Reserve will inject $55.36 billion in liquidity into the market over the next three weeks . This follows significant liquidity provisions in late December 2025, including a record $74.6 billion injection on the last trading day, which were largely seen as routine year-end operations to manage settlement pressures . However, these continued injections are contributing to a market narrative of 'stealth easing' . The Fed's policy focus has shifted towards ensuring financial stability and managing liquidity, even as it faces political pressure and concerns over high asset valuations . Some market participants believe these actions will fuel further asset price increases and potentially lead to a short squeeze .

Jan14

Fed Maintains Rates at 95% Probability in January

According to CME's "FedWatch" tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining its current interest rate in the January meeting is 95%, with only a 5% chance of a 25 basis point cut. This consensus has strengthened from around 83% in early January. The shift is largely due to robust economic data, particularly a surprise drop in initial jobless claims, which reinforces a high-rate environment and has pushed market expectations for the first rate cut to June. Consequently, the probability of a rate cut by March has fallen to 26%.

Fed Official Says Trump's Deregulation Will Boost Growth

Fed Governor Stephen Millan argued that the Trump administration's deregulation agenda justifies further interest rate cuts. He posits that deregulation will boost productivity and growth without inflation, estimating it could lower inflation by 0.5 percentage points by eliminating 30% of regulations. This supports his consistently dovish stance, where he has advocated for aggressive cuts of over 100 basis points in 2026 to avoid economic contraction, a view that contrasts with other officials. This comes amid warnings from business leaders like Jamie Dimon that political pressure on the Fed could backfire, raising inflation expectations and long-term rates.

Jan11

Federal Reserve Likely to Maintain Interest Rates in January

According to CME 'FedWatch' data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining its current interest rate in January stands at 95.6%, with the chance of a 25 basis point cut at only 4.4%. This marks a significant shift from early January when the probability of a hold was around 85%. Consequently, expectations for a March rate cut have also diminished, with the probability falling to 27.6% from over 50%. This repricing follows recent economic data, particularly on employment, which has led firms like Goldman Sachs to postpone their forecast for the first rate cut from March to June 2026.

Jan09

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Fall to 5% Due to Strong Labor Market

The likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the January 28 FOMC meeting has decreased, with traders now estimating a 5% chance, down from 11.1%. The December unemployment rate was 4.4%, better than expected, while wage growth rose by 3.8%. Despite a weaker nonfarm payroll increase of 50,000 jobs in December, the overall labor market strength is leading to reduced expectations for rate cuts, as higher wages may keep inflation elevated.

Fed Maintains Current Interest Rate Probability Increased After Non-farm Payrolls Data Release

Following the release of non-farm payroll data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January has increased to 97.2%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut has dropped to 2.8%.

Jan06

Fed Maintains Rates Unchanged in January with 81.7% Probability

The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January is 81.7%, with an 18.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut.

2 sources

01/07/2026 06:08

Fed Official Suggests Significantly Lowering Interest Rates to Stimulate US Economy

Stephen Miran, a Federal Reserve governor, advocates for significant interest rate cuts this year to stimulate the U.S. economy. He believes the current policy is restrictive and suggests that over 100 basis points of cuts are justified. Miran's term ends on January 31.

01/06/2026 22:00

8.8

1 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

01/06/2026 22:00

Jan04

CME reports 83.4% chance of Fed maintaining current rate

According to CME's 'FedWatch' tool, there is an 83.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in January, with a 16.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut.

2025

Dec31

Investors Expect 0.25 Percentage Point Rate Cut on September 17

Investors are anticipating a 0.25 percentage point decrease in interest rates on September 17. Despite a stable Core CPI and a significant increase in jobless claims, the likelihood of a substantial rate cut by the Federal Reserve is low.

Dec30

Fed Meeting Minutes:少数 Members Oppose December Rate Cut

The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes reveal that while most participants supported the rate cut, a minority opposed it, citing concerns over inflation and employment risks.

Discussion on Macroeconomic Issues

The discussion on macroeconomic issues covers interest rate policy, views on inflation and employment, and the impact of the historically longest U.S. government shutdown.

Fed Injects $16 Billion Liquidity into U.S. Banking System

The Federal Reserve injected $16 billion in liquidity into the U.S. banking system through overnight repos, marking the second-largest liquidity injection since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Dec29

Fed Reinstates Expansion to Boost Market Liquidity with RMP

The Federal Reserve plans to restart balance sheet expansion in December 2025 by initiating Reserve Management Purchases (RMP), buying approximately $40 billion in short-term Treasury bills monthly to prevent a liquidity crisis.