Fed-related news tracking
Federal Reserve2026
Recent CME FedWatch data indicates a 66.9% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in September, a significant shift from late July when a 25bps hike was the consensus . This reversal is fueled by July's macro weakness, including CPI falling to 3.4% and a 0.6% drop in retail sales . Consequently, the S&P 500 has reached record highs while the Dollar Index hit a three-month low .
Following a series of weak economic indicators, including a surprise 0.6% drop in July retail sales and cooling CPI data (3.4%), the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has plummeted to 28.6% . Market consensus has shifted heavily toward a pause (67.5%), as consumer confidence and labor market data also show signs of softening .
U.S. July CPI rose 3.4% YoY and 0.1% MoM, with core CPI at 2.5% YoY, both meeting expectations and confirming a two-month cooling trend . Following this and a weak non-farm payroll report, market expectations for a September rate hike dropped to 38.1%, with a 61.9% probability of rates remaining unchanged . This shift has boosted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 while providing liquidity relief to the Hong Kong tech sector .
US non-farm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far missing the expected 83,000 increase . Consequently, interest rate futures now price the probability of a September hike at just 44%, down from being the base case, while the probability of a pause rose to 60.4% . Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield hitting a multi-week low of 4.204% .
Reuters has published the latest details and direct links to the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet as of August 6, 2026, providing the market with updated data on the central bank's assets and liabilities .
CME FedWatch data indicates a 73.6% probability of a 25bps rate hike in September 2026, with cumulative hike expectations rising through October . This hawkish shift follows a July FOMC meeting marked by three rare dissenting votes favoring tighter policy . Markets are now pricing in higher yields, with gold struggling at the $4,000 mark and analysts revising 10-year Treasury targets upward to 4.85% .
CME FedWatch data indicates a sharp rise in rate hike expectations, with a 63.4% probability of a 25bps increase in September and a cumulative 73.2% chance of hikes by October . This shift follows a volatile week where September hike odds surged from 53% to over 80%, fueled by oil prices hitting $90/bbl and persistent energy inflation .
On July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting . However, the decision was marked by a significant 9-3 dissent, with Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan voting for a 25-basis-point increase citing inflation concerns . This meeting, under Chair Kevin Warsh, reflected heightened internal debate over supply-side pressures and a reduction in forward guidance .
The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting . However, the decision was marked by a significant 9-3 vote split, with regional presidents Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissenting in favor of a 25-basis point hike due to persistent inflation and geopolitical risks from the war in Iran . This represents the most significant internal dissent since 2016 .
According to CME FedWatch, there is a 63.7% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in July, while the probability of a 25bps hike in September has risen to 55.2% . This shift is driven by oil prices exceeding $100, geopolitical tensions, and a resilient labor market . Market reactions include rising Treasury yields and downward pressure on gold and equities .
CME FedWatch data shows the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in July has surged to between 85.6% and 88.8% . This represents a sharp reversal from earlier in the week, when geopolitical tensions and oil price spikes pushed the implied probability of a 25bps hike to nearly 50% . The primary catalyst for this shift was the June CPI report, which came in cooler than expected at 3.5% .
The Federal Reserve's semi-annual report describes a stable labor market where robust nominal wage growth is offset by strong productivity gains . While geopolitical tensions and tariffs have kept some inflation indicators high, the Fed noted that measures like the trimmed mean PCE have declined . The report specifically highlights AI investment as a driver for increased production capacity and efficiency .
On July 9, 2026, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, stating that future policy depends on inflation data [citation:1, 13]. This sparked a rally in Chinese ADRs, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rising 2.05% and Alibaba surging 11.03% . Analysts suggest this reflects easing tightening expectations and a focus on Hong Kong tech valuations, which are currently at decade-low levels [citation:4, 14].
CME FedWatch data shows a 73.3% probability of the Fed maintaining rates in July, but expectations for a September hike have surged, with a 52.7% chance of a 25bps increase and a 14.9% chance of 50bps . While soft June payroll data initially cooled hawkishness, the June FOMC minutes revealed deep concerns regarding inflation fueled by AI investment and geopolitical tensions .
As of July 7, CME FedWatch data indicates a 74.3% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in July, while the likelihood of a 25bps hike stands at 25.7% . However, expectations for September are shifting, with a cumulative 57% chance of a rate increase as officials cite inflation risks from AI investment and geopolitical tensions .
U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 57,000 jobs in June 2026, significantly missing expectations and following downward revisions to previous months [citation:33, 39, 41]. While the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, this was primarily due to a 0.3% drop in labor participation [citation:35, 46]. Leisure and hospitality saw their sharpest decline since 2020, even as healthcare remained a rare bright spot [citation:1, 34].
As of July 1, 2026, CME FedWatch data indicates a 66.3% probability that the Fed will maintain current interest rates in July, while the probability of a 25bps hike by September has risen to 50% . This hawkish shift is largely attributed to new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s policy stance and persistent core inflation concerns .
As of July 1, 2026, CME FedWatch data shows a 66.3% probability of the Fed holding rates steady in July, with a 33.7% chance of a 25bps hike . However, trader sentiment is shifting rapidly, with short positions in Fed Funds futures surging 30% since new Chair Kevin Warsh took office, driven by strong labor data and hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed President Hammack .