Federal Reserve

Fed-related news tracking

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Events

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2026

Jan11

Federal Reserve Likely to Maintain Interest Rates in January

According to CME 'FedWatch' data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining its current interest rate in January stands at 95.6%, with the chance of a 25 basis point cut at only 4.4%. This marks a significant shift from early January when the probability of a hold was around 85%. Consequently, expectations for a March rate cut have also diminished, with the probability falling to 27.6% from over 50%. This repricing follows recent economic data, particularly on employment, which has led firms like Goldman Sachs to postpone their forecast for the first rate cut from March to June 2026.

Jan09

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Fall to 5% Due to Strong Labor Market

The likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the January 28 FOMC meeting has decreased, with traders now estimating a 5% chance, down from 11.1%. The December unemployment rate was 4.4%, better than expected, while wage growth rose by 3.8%. Despite a weaker nonfarm payroll increase of 50,000 jobs in December, the overall labor market strength is leading to reduced expectations for rate cuts, as higher wages may keep inflation elevated.

Fed Maintains Current Interest Rate Probability Increased After Non-farm Payrolls Data Release

Following the release of non-farm payroll data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January has increased to 97.2%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut has dropped to 2.8%.

Jan06

Fed Maintains Rates Unchanged in January with 81.7% Probability

The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January is 81.7%, with an 18.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut.

2 sources

01/07/2026 06:08

Fed Official Suggests Significantly Lowering Interest Rates to Stimulate US Economy

Stephen Miran, a Federal Reserve governor, advocates for significant interest rate cuts this year to stimulate the U.S. economy. He believes the current policy is restrictive and suggests that over 100 basis points of cuts are justified. Miran's term ends on January 31.

01/06/2026 22:00

8.8

1 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

01/06/2026 22:00

Jan04

CME reports 83.4% chance of Fed maintaining current rate

According to CME's 'FedWatch' tool, there is an 83.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in January, with a 16.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut.

2025

Dec31

Investors Expect 0.25 Percentage Point Rate Cut on September 17

Investors are anticipating a 0.25 percentage point decrease in interest rates on September 17. Despite a stable Core CPI and a significant increase in jobless claims, the likelihood of a substantial rate cut by the Federal Reserve is low.

Dec30

Fed Meeting Minutes:少数 Members Oppose December Rate Cut

The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes reveal that while most participants supported the rate cut, a minority opposed it, citing concerns over inflation and employment risks.

Discussion on Macroeconomic Issues

The discussion on macroeconomic issues covers interest rate policy, views on inflation and employment, and the impact of the historically longest U.S. government shutdown.

Fed Injects $16 Billion Liquidity into U.S. Banking System

The Federal Reserve injected $16 billion in liquidity into the U.S. banking system through overnight repos, marking the second-largest liquidity injection since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Dec29

Fed Reinstates Expansion to Boost Market Liquidity with RMP

The Federal Reserve plans to restart balance sheet expansion in December 2025 by initiating Reserve Management Purchases (RMP), buying approximately $40 billion in short-term Treasury bills monthly to prevent a liquidity crisis.

Dec28

CME Releases Data on Future Fed Rate Cut Probabilities

According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in January is 18.8%, with an 81.2% chance of rates remaining unchanged. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 46.9%, with a 44.7% chance of no change, and an 8.5% chance of a 50 basis point cut.

Dec27

Fed sees 17.7% chance of rate cut in January

According to CME's 'Fed Watch', the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January is 17.7%, with an 82.3% chance of maintaining current rates. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut rises to 45.6%, while maintaining rates is at 46.7%, and a 50 basis point cut is at 7.7%.

Dec24

CME Predicts Fed Rate Probability for Next Year

According to CME's 'FedWatch', the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 13.3%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 86.7%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 40.7%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 54.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5.0%.

1 sources

12/24/2025 08:16

Dec22

Fed Official Warns of Recession Risk if Rates Aren't Cut Further Next Year

Fed Governor Milan warns that not continuing rate cuts next year could increase recession risks, citing rising unemployment and poor job data. He advocates for a more dovish stance, despite internal Fed disagreements on future policy paths.

Fed's January rate cut probability falls to 19.9%

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January has fallen to 19.9%, with an 80.1% chance of rates remaining unchanged.

Dec20

CME Releases Fed Interest Rate Cut Probability for January Next Year

According to CME's 'FedWatch' data, as of December 21, 2025, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January 2026 is 22.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 77.9%.

Dec19

Fed accepts $3.047 billion in fixed-rate reverse repo operation

The Federal Reserve conducted a reverse repo operation totaling $3.047 billion with 12 counterparties.

Dec18

Fed Expected to Cut Rates by an Additional 3 BPs by End-2026

The Federal Reserve's interest rate swaps indicate an additional rate cut of 3 basis points by the end of 2026.

Market Expectations for Fed's Interest Rate Policy Before CPI Release

Before the CPI release, CME's FedWatch indicates a 26.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in January, with a 73.4% chance of rates remaining unchanged. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 45.8%, with a 43.2% chance of no change, and a 10.9% chance of a 50 basis point cut.