Federal Reserve

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2026

Feb18

FOMC Meeting Minutes Discuss Inflation and Interest Rate Policies

The January Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed significant internal division, with officials expressing renewed concerns about inflation. While rates were held at 3.5%-3.75%, several officials discussed the possibility of a rate hike if inflation remains persistently above the 2% target. Most members warned that the path to lower inflation could be slow and uneven, advocating for patience before considering rate cuts. The policy focus has shifted back towards inflation risks, with the vote to hold rates passing 10-2. Consequently, traders have pushed back expectations for the first rate cut, possibly to June.

FOMC Meeting Minutes Show Support for January Rate Pause and Consideration for Cuts

The January Fed meeting minutes revealed that while almost all officials supported pausing rate actions, there was significant internal division on the future path of interest rates. Some members indicated that rate cuts could be appropriate later in the year if inflation declines as expected. However, a more dominant theme was caution, with several officials expressing concern about persistent inflation risks and warning that further rate hikes might be necessary if inflation remains high. The committee decided to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, marking a "hawkish pause" after three consecutive cuts. The market has subsequently pushed back expectations for rate cuts.

Feb14

Fed March Rate Cut Probability Low, Odds of Maintaining Rates High

According to CME "FedWatch" data as of February 14, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at its March meeting is 90.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is only 9.2%. This marks a significant shift from a week prior, on February 8, when the probability of a March cut was 23.2%. The Fed had previously signaled a pause in its rate-cutting cycle at its January meeting, holding the benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% after three consecutive cuts. Officials have emphasized a data-dependent approach, with future moves contingent on changes in inflation and the labor market.

Feb13

Market expects inflation to slow, with the Fed expected to cut rates twice, pushing Treasury yields to this year's lows

Following a lower-than-expected January CPI report, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have solidified, with investors now betting on at least two cuts in 2026 and a rising probability of a third. The U.S. headline CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, below the 2.5% forecast, while the core CPI met expectations at 2.5%. This has driven U.S. Treasury yields to their lowest levels of the year, as the market prices in a more dovish Fed stance. Analysts at firms like Jefferies and Goldman Sachs had already been forecasting two cuts, with some noting the potential for three if the economy slows as predicted.

02/14/2026 04:45

8.2

6 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

02/14/2026 04:45

Feb11

Fed Eases Capital Requirements for Banks

The U.S. Federal Reserve is signaling a relaxation of bank capital requirements, planning to drop certain non-public remedial warnings and continuing a broader easing of financial institution oversight under Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman. Specifically, examiners will re-evaluate outstanding warnings and rescind those not aligned with current priorities, focusing instead on immediate risks to banks' financial health. Furthermore, the Fed has decided to maintain current capital levels for large banks through the 2026 stress test cycle, delaying revisions to stress capital buffers until 2027 to allow for a review of its testing models.

5 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

02/12/2026 02:19

Feb09

Fed Maintains Rates Unchanged in March with 82.3% Probability

According to CME FedWatch data as of February 10-11, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at the 3.50%-3.75% range in its March meeting is estimated to be between 78.4% and 82.3%. This follows the Fed's decision to hold rates steady in January, where the committee noted a 'solid' expansion but saw two members dissent in favor of a 25 basis point cut. Market expectations have been volatile, with the probability of a March cut rising from 9% on February 4 to over 21% by February 11. The consensus is now pointing towards a potential first cut around the June meeting.

Feb08

Fed Maintains Rates Unchanged in March at 80.1% Probability

According to CME FedWatch data, as of February 9th, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in March is 80.1%, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut at 19.9%. This reflects a shift from early February when the probability of a hold was as high as 91%. The Fed's January meeting ended a series of three consecutive rate cuts, with the committee holding rates at 3.5%-3.75% and describing economic activity as a "solid expansion" while inflation remains "elevated". Most analysts now expect the Fed to wait until at least June before considering any rate adjustments.

Feb05

Fed rate cut expectations cool, dollar strength presses Asian currencies

Expectations for a US Federal Reserve rate cut are diminishing, causing the US dollar to strengthen and exert pressure on Asian currencies. A recent CIMB report highlighted the Singapore dollar's weakening against the USD, attributing it to market anticipation of a Fed pause on rate cuts. This sentiment is reinforced by cautious statements on inflation from Fed officials like Governor Cook. The Fed's decision on January 29 to hold rates steady, the first such pause since September 2025, and the nomination of the reputedly hawkish Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair have significantly contributed to this shift, leading to a stronger dollar and a sell-off in Asian markets.

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

+0.07%

6 sourcesoutlets including 券商中国

02/05/2026 11:23

Feb04

Fed Maintains Large Banks' Capital Levels and Plans to Revise Stress Capital Buffers in 2027

The U.S. Federal Reserve announced it will maintain current capital levels for large banks through the 2026 stress testing cycle, delaying revisions to the stress capital buffer (SCB) until 2027. The stated reason for the delay is to allow the Fed more time to review its testing models for potential flaws and enhance transparency, following a public feedback period.

3 sourcesoutlets including Reuters

02/05/2026 05:30

Feb03

Fed March Rate Cut at 9%, Odds of Maintaining Rates Are High

According to CME FedWatch data on February 4, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March has fallen to 9%, with the likelihood of rates remaining unchanged at 91%. This reflects a significant shift from mid-January when the probability of a March cut was over 20%. The change follows the Fed's January decision to hold rates steady and cautious commentary from officials, who have pointed to a resilient economy and the need for more data before acting. Analysts and traders now widely expect the first rate cut to be delayed until at least June.

8 sources

02/04/2026 01:05

Jan29

Fed Pauses Rate Cut, US Stocks Unmoved, Other Markets Volatile

The U.S. Federal Reserve decided to pause its rate cuts, keeping the federal funds rate unchanged, a move that was widely anticipated by the market. Consequently, U.S. stock indices showed a muted reaction with minimal changes. However, other markets experienced greater volatility, with shifts in Treasury yields, gold prices, and the U.S. dollar index. The Fed's statement noted that economic activity is expanding at a "solid" pace, an upgrade from the previous "moderate" assessment, and emphasized that future decisions will be data-dependent. Despite the surface calm in equities, some analysts point to significant underlying volatility in individual stocks.

Fed Maintains Interest Rate at 3.6%, RBI May Cut Later in 2026

The US Federal Reserve maintained its key interest rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range, pausing after a series of cuts, citing an improved economic outlook which it now describes as expanding at a "robust" pace. While two officials dissented in favor of a cut, the market now largely expects the Fed to hold rates until at least June. This decision may give the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) flexibility to hold its rate in February but consider cuts later in 2026, pending fiscal signals from the upcoming budget. The Fed's future path is uncertain, with political pressure and the end of Chairman Powell's term in May adding complexity.

Jan28

Fed Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged and Buys Treasury Bills

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range, halting a series of three consecutive rate cuts. The decision was passed with a 10-2 vote. The policy statement reflected a more optimistic economic outlook, describing activity as expanding at a "solid" pace and removing language about downside risks to the labor market. This signals a more balanced approach to the Fed's dual mandate. While inflation is still considered "slightly high," the committee's tone suggests no immediate urgency for further cuts, with markets now anticipating the next move is unlikely before June.

6 sourcesoutlets including AASTOCKS

01/29/2026 03:19

Fed Maintains Interest Rate

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range, a move that was widely expected and ends a series of three consecutive rate cuts from late 2025. The accompanying statement noted a shift in economic assessment from "moderate" to "solid" expansion and removed language highlighting downside risks to the labor market, indicating a more balanced view on its dual mandate. Despite two officials dissenting in favor of a rate cut, the market now anticipates the Fed will remain on hold until at least June.

Fed Keeps Interest Rate at 3.75%

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, pausing a series of three consecutive rate cuts from the previous year, a move that was in line with market expectations. The accompanying statement signaled a more optimistic economic outlook, describing economic activity as expanding at a 'solid' pace and removing previous language about downside risks to the labor market, indicating a more balanced view of its dual mandate. As a result, market participants now anticipate the Fed will not adjust rates again before June. The decision was not unanimous, with two officials dissenting.

Jan17

Fed to inject $55.36 billion in liquidity into the market

The Federal Reserve will inject $55.36 billion in liquidity into the market over the next three weeks . This follows significant liquidity provisions in late December 2025, including a record $74.6 billion injection on the last trading day, which were largely seen as routine year-end operations to manage settlement pressures . However, these continued injections are contributing to a market narrative of 'stealth easing' . The Fed's policy focus has shifted towards ensuring financial stability and managing liquidity, even as it faces political pressure and concerns over high asset valuations . Some market participants believe these actions will fuel further asset price increases and potentially lead to a short squeeze .

Jan14

Fed Maintains Rates at 95% Probability in January

According to CME's "FedWatch" tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining its current interest rate in the January meeting is 95%, with only a 5% chance of a 25 basis point cut. This consensus has strengthened from around 83% in early January. The shift is largely due to robust economic data, particularly a surprise drop in initial jobless claims, which reinforces a high-rate environment and has pushed market expectations for the first rate cut to June. Consequently, the probability of a rate cut by March has fallen to 26%.

Fed Official Says Trump's Deregulation Will Boost Growth

Fed Governor Stephen Millan argued that the Trump administration's deregulation agenda justifies further interest rate cuts. He posits that deregulation will boost productivity and growth without inflation, estimating it could lower inflation by 0.5 percentage points by eliminating 30% of regulations. This supports his consistently dovish stance, where he has advocated for aggressive cuts of over 100 basis points in 2026 to avoid economic contraction, a view that contrasts with other officials. This comes amid warnings from business leaders like Jamie Dimon that political pressure on the Fed could backfire, raising inflation expectations and long-term rates.

Jan11

Federal Reserve Likely to Maintain Interest Rates in January

According to CME 'FedWatch' data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining its current interest rate in January stands at 95.6%, with the chance of a 25 basis point cut at only 4.4%. This marks a significant shift from early January when the probability of a hold was around 85%. Consequently, expectations for a March rate cut have also diminished, with the probability falling to 27.6% from over 50%. This repricing follows recent economic data, particularly on employment, which has led firms like Goldman Sachs to postpone their forecast for the first rate cut from March to June 2026.

Jan09

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Fall to 5% Due to Strong Labor Market

The likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the January 28 FOMC meeting has decreased, with traders now estimating a 5% chance, down from 11.1%. The December unemployment rate was 4.4%, better than expected, while wage growth rose by 3.8%. Despite a weaker nonfarm payroll increase of 50,000 jobs in December, the overall labor market strength is leading to reduced expectations for rate cuts, as higher wages may keep inflation elevated.