Guohai Securities: Improvement in Supply and Demand Pattern, Profitability in the Optical Trigger Industry Expected to Improve

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guohai Securities has released a research report stating that since 2025, the prices of various photoinitiator products have risen. On the supply side, the photoinitiator industry’s production capacity is continuously concentrating towards enterprises with scale advantages, cost advantages, and technological advantages; on the demand side, with the implementation of domestic real estate policies, there is a recovery trend in traditional demand areas for photoinitiators, and emerging application industries such as 3D printing materials, PCBs, and photoresists are developing rapidly, indicating a broad demand outlook for photoinitiators. As the supply-demand pattern gradually improves, photoinitiator prices are expected to bottom out and rebound, and industry profitability is likely to recover. This is the first coverage, and a "recommended" rating is given to the photoinitiator industry.

Guohai Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:

Demand Side: Traditional Demand Recovers, Emerging Demand Opens Up Space

Photocurable materials mainly include UV coatings, UV inks, UV adhesives, etc., which are primarily composed of photoinitiators, monomers, oligomers, and additives. Photocuring technology is an efficient, environmentally friendly, energy-saving, and widely applicable material processing and manufacturing technology, and photocurable materials are important alternatives to traditional solvent-based coatings, inks, and adhesives. Due to the environmentally friendly, efficient, and energy-saving characteristics of photocuring technology, it is widely used in various fields such as decoration and building materials coating, electrical/electronic coating, packaging/paper printing, printed circuit board manufacturing, and 3D printing. Photoinitiators are the core component of photocurable materials, and their performance plays a crucial role in the curing speed and degree of photocurable materials. According to the 2024 annual report data from SINO-HIGH, generally, the usage of photoinitiators accounts for 3%-5% of photocurable materials, and their cost generally accounts for 10%-15% of the overall cost of photocurable products. According to the China Society of Photochemistry, in 2023, the market size of UV coatings in China was 6.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%; the market size of UV inks was 5.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%; and the market size of UV adhesives was 2.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 238%.

Currently, with the implementation of domestic real estate policies, the demand for photoinitiators in coatings shows a recovery trend; UV inks are growing driven by downstream PCBs, clothing, vacuum plating, lipsticks, etc.; UV adhesives are also growing due to their use in optical glues for touch screens, electronic glues for circuit board curing and bonding, and composite glues for high-resistance soft packaging. According to statistics from the Radiation Curing Professional Committee of the China Society of Photochemistry, the demand for photoinitiators in China reached 35,000 tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 9%, still maintaining growth. According to the "Wohlers Report 2025," the total revenue of the global 3D printing industry is expected to reach 21.9 billion USD in 2024, a 9.1% increase from 20 billion USD in 2023, with material sales at 4.4 billion USD; it is expected that by 2034, the global 3D printing industry market size will reach 114.5 billion USD, with a compound annual growth rate of 18% from 2024 to 2034, and the compound annual growth rate for material manufacturers is expected to reach 21.7%, showing strong growth momentum.

With the continuous promotion of downstream applications such as artificial intelligence, data centers, and smart cars, the global PCB demand is generally on the rise. According to Prismark data, the global PCB output value is expected to be 73.565 billion USD in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%; the global PCB market size is expected to reach 94.661 billion USD by 2029, with an average annual compound growth rate of 5.2% from 2024 to 2029 Among them, the output value of PCBs in mainland China in 2024 is expected to be USD 41.213 billion, and the PCB market size is projected to reach USD 50.804 billion by 2029, with an average annual compound growth rate of 4.3% from 2024 to 2029. The global photoresist market is showing a "dual oligopoly + local rise" pattern. According to data from JuYi Information Consulting, foreign companies such as Tokyo Ohka Kogyo, Shin-Etsu Chemical, and DuPont occupy 60% of the high-end market, but in the mid-to-low-end market, local companies such as Nanda Optoelectronics, Red Avenue New Materials, and Jingrui Electric Materials have made breakthroughs. JuYi Information Consulting predicts that by 2025, local companies will hold a 35% market share in the KrF photoresist market, the localization rate of ArF photoresist will exceed 20%, and EUV photoresist will enter the pilot verification stage. With the rapid development of industries such as 3D printing materials, PCBs, and photoresists, the demand for photoinitiators has broad prospects.

Supply Side: Industry Concentration is Expected to Continue to Increase

The domestic production capacities of leading photoinitiator companies in China in 2024 are as follows: Jiuri 23,000 tons, TRONLY 17,000 tons, Wokailong 13,000 tons, IGM 12,000 tons, Yangfan New Materials 8,000 tons, and Gurin Technology 5,000 tons, indicating a relatively concentrated competitive landscape. According to data from the Radiation Curing Professional Committee of the Chinese Society of Photonics, the output of photoinitiators in China in 2024 is expected to be 59,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. According to the annual report data of various companies for 2024, the output of photoinitiators from Jiuri, TRONLY, and Yangfan New Materials is expected to be 19,900 tons, 7,300 tons, and 4,000 tons respectively, accounting for 52.73% of the total industry output in 2024. The production process of each type of photoinitiator involves multiple steps of organic chemical reactions, which presents certain technical barriers.

As market competition intensifies, the production capacity of China's photoinitiator industry is increasingly concentrating on companies with scale advantages, cost advantages, and technological advantages. Since 2024, Ningxia Wokailong New Materials Co., Ltd. has been repeatedly listed as a dishonest executor. On June 9, 2025, a fire occurred in Workshop 109 of Jiangxi Yangfan New Materials Co., Ltd., and on June 10, 2025, Jiangxi Yangfan received a "On-site Handling Measures Decision" issued by the Pengze County Emergency Management Bureau, ordering Jiangxi Yangfan to suspend production and business operations for rectification, and production and operation can only resume after passing inspection and approval. Since 2022, due to poor industry conditions and relatively abundant supply-side capacity, competition has been fierce, leading to an overall decline in product prices and weakening profitability for companies. As the profitability of the photoinitiator industry reaches its bottom and backward production capacity is gradually eliminated, the competitive landscape of the photoinitiator industry is expected to further improve in the future.

Risk Warning

Risks of safety and environmental production, product price fluctuation risks, intensified industry competition risks, tariff policy risks, exchange rate fluctuation risks, key attention to company profit forecasts falling short of expectations, and risks of technological updates and iterations