According to the Zhitong Finance APP, GF Securities has released a research report stating that recently, prices of various coal types have risen broadly, with the second and third rounds of coking coal price increases being implemented consecutively. The current coal market is stabilizing and recovering, benefiting from seasonal demand increases in the second half of the year, a slowdown in production growth, and a decline in expected imported coal. It is anticipated that coal prices will continue to improve. On the policy front, the National Energy Administration has issued a verification notice stating that annual raw coal production must not exceed the announced capacity, and monthly raw coal production must not exceed 10% of the announced capacity. Expectations for subsequent supply contraction are strengthening, further supporting coal prices. On the company side, the coal price center for 2025 has fallen, but profits in the second quarter may have reached a bottom, with steady recovery expected in the second half of the year and in the medium to long term, providing advantages in sector valuation and dividend yield.
<h2>GF Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:</h2>
Recent market dynamics: Prices of various coal types have risen broadly, with consecutive implementations of the second and third rounds of coking coal price increases.
According to Fenwei Energy, for thermal coal, the price of CCI5500 thermal coal is reported at 650 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton week-on-week. This week, the prices of thermal coal at ports and production areas continued to rise moderately, with some coal types in the Shaanxi coal region experiencing significant price increases. Since late June, due to high temperatures, daily consumption at power plants has increased, and the enthusiasm for restocking has also improved. This week, rainfall in major production areas has had some impact on supply, with port coal prices cumulatively rising 7% from the bottom. In the future, high temperatures may continue to boost demand, and after inventory levels in various links further decline, restocking demand will increase, while supply is unlikely to grow, leading to expectations of continued recovery in coal prices.
For coking coal, this week, the price of main coking coal at domestic ports rose by 240 yuan/ton to 1680 yuan/ton, with prices having cumulatively increased by 450 yuan/ton or 37% since early July, now recovering to the highest point since the beginning of the year. On the demand side, since the industry chain has entered a demand lull, the operating rate of steel mills' blast furnaces and pig iron production has remained high. This week, the second and third rounds of price increases for downstream coking coal have been implemented consecutively, with pig iron production slightly declining month-on-month, currently higher than the same period last year, supporting the rigid demand for coal and coke in the industry chain. Additionally, due to expectations of reduced competition, market speculation sentiment has also significantly improved.
On the supply side, according to the Coal Network, most production areas have stable production recently; however, some coal mines in the Lüliang and Linfen regions of Shanxi have seen supply continue to narrow due to accidents, gangue treatment, maintenance, and working face issues, leading to a slight decline in overall production, coupled with expectations of some supply contraction due to reduced competition. Overall, recent demand in the industry chain has remained at a medium to high level, with high enthusiasm for downstream procurement. Considering that the supply growth rate in major production areas like Shanxi may slow down, it is expected that short-term spot prices for coking coal may continue to rise steadily, with attention on the sustainability of downstream restocking.
Recent key focuses
(1) Industry policy: The National Energy Administration requires verification of coal mine production conditions, stating that annual raw coal production must not exceed the announced capacity, and monthly raw coal production must not exceed 10% of the announced capacity; (2) Domestic supply and demand: In June, downstream electricity demand grew steadily, with the year-on-year growth rate of domestic raw coal production continuing to slow, and the decline in coal imports further expanding; (3) International supply and demand: According to AXSMarine, coal trade volume in the first half of 2025 decreased by 7.9% year-on-year, with export volumes from countries like Indonesia and Australia declining, while imports by India and China have also decreased
Recommended Focus Areas
Stable profit and dividend coal companies: China Shenhua (601088.SH, 01088), SHCI (601225.SH), China Coal Energy (601898.SH, 01898), Xinjie Energy (601918.SH), YANKUANG ENERGY (600188.SH, 01171), etc.; high elasticity companies benefiting from positive demand expectations and supply contraction: Lu'an EED (601699.SH), Shanxi Coking Coal (600985.SH), hbky (600985.SH), Shougang Resources (00639), Pingmei Shenma (601666.SH), Shanmei International (600546.SH), Jinkong Coal (601001.SH), Huayang Co., Ltd. (600348.SH), etc.
Risk Warning
Lower-than-expected growth in downstream demand, rapid increase in imported coal, accelerated deterioration of supply-demand relations, leading to coal prices falling beyond expectations, etc

601225

600188

01171

601898

01898

600985

601699

Guangfa Securities released a research report indicating that recently, coke prices have experienced a second and third round of increases, and the coal market is stabilizing and recovering. It is expected that in the second half of the year, coal prices will continue to improve due to seasonal demand increases, a slowdown in production growth, and a decline in expectations for imported coal. In terms of policy, the National Energy Administration has restricted raw coal production, further supporting coal prices. Although the coal price center is expected to decline in 2025, it is anticipated that profits in the second quarter have reached a bottom, with a steady recovery expected in the second half of the year and in the medium to long term

Zhitong

SHCI

YANKUANG ENERGY

China Coal Energy

CHINA COAL

hbky

Lu′an EED

Guangfa Securities: The second and third rounds of price increases for coke have been implemented consecutively, and the expectation of subsequent supply contraction strengthens support for the rise in coal prices