Guosheng Securities: Major manufacturers have significantly raised long-term quotes, and tungsten prices are expected to continue rising under tight supply and demand

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guosheng Securities released a research report stating that in the first half of August, the long-term quotations from several major manufacturers, including Xiamen Tungsten, have significantly increased, while the long-term quotations from Xianglu Tungsten and the monthly forecast price from Ganzhou Tungsten Association have not yet been announced. From the existing quotations, the current long-term quotations are close to the market price announcement and have been significantly adjusted upward compared to the second half of July, reflecting that the current tight raw material situation still exists. The long-term quotations from major manufacturers also provide strong upward support to the market, and it is expected that tungsten prices may continue to operate strongly in August. In the short term, the price elasticity of tungsten is driven by the need for restocking and export recovery; in the medium to long term, the supply contradictions of tungsten products are difficult to resolve, and the scarcity of resources is expected to drive the upward shift of tungsten price centers.

The main points of Guosheng Securities are as follows:

Long-term quotations from major manufacturers have been significantly adjusted upward, and tungsten prices are expected to continue rising under tight supply and demand.

Market price: As of August 5, according to SMM, the price of black tungsten concentrate is 194,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 12% compared to early July; APT price is 285,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 13% compared to early July; tungsten carbide powder price is 422,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 14% compared to early July. In terms of the external market, according to Asian Metal, the APT price is 349,000 yuan/ton (including tax, Rotterdam), with a price difference of 64,000 yuan, and tungsten carbide is 502,000 yuan/ton (including tax, China offshore), with a price difference of 80,000 yuan.

Long-term quotations in the first half of August: (1) Xiamen Tungsten: APT quotation 279,500 yuan/ton. (2) ZY-Tungsten: black tungsten concentrate 192,500 yuan/standard ton, APT quotation 283,000 yuan/ton. (3) Jiangxi Tungsten Group: black tungsten concentrate 194,000 yuan/standard ton.

Strong demand for restocking and export recovery drives tungsten prices to operate strongly.

Generally speaking, the third quarter is a traditional off-season for the downstream manufacturing industry of tungsten products, and the support for blade consumption and tungsten prices is relatively weak. However, the current tungsten prices are showing a strong trend for three reasons:

(1) The manufacturing industry is currently at the bottom of a major cycle, and even if seasonality weakens, there is not much downward space. (2) After a year of inventory reduction, the current inventory levels of industries and traders are low, and the need for restocking provides strong support for tungsten prices. (3) Since June, external tungsten prices have accelerated upward, reflecting the price adjustments after China's export control on tungsten products in February, with overseas inventory digestion taking four months. Under the condition of weak supply and strong demand, external prices have strengthened, and the price difference between domestic and external tungsten products has reached historically high levels. The core driving force for the repair of the domestic and external price difference lies in the circulation of physical quantities. Since June, there has been a noticeable recovery in tungsten exports, further strengthening the external market's drive for the domestic market.

Long-term quotations from major manufacturers are close to market prices, and the tight raw material situation still exists.

In addition to the three major manufacturers that have disclosed their long-term quotations for the first half of the month, the long-term quotations from Xianglu Tungsten and the monthly forecast price from Ganzhou Tungsten Association have not yet been announced. From the existing quotations, the current long-term quotations are close to the market price announcement and have been significantly adjusted upward compared to the second half of July, reflecting that the current tight raw material situation still exists. The long-term quotations from major manufacturers also provide strong upward support to the market, and it is expected that tungsten prices may continue to operate strongly in August.

The Bakuta tungsten mine has been shipping normally since May, and the market has fully digested the supply increase.

Previously, the market was concerned that the core increment—the Bakuta tungsten mine in Kazakhstan—might impact the market in the second half of the year. This mine has established nearly 10,000 tons of tungsten concentrate production capacity, averaging around 800 tons per month. According to customs data, since May 2025, there has been a large-scale inflow of tungsten concentrate from Kazakhstan into the domestic market, with imports reaching 866 tons in June, indicating that the mine has been producing normally In this context, domestic tungsten prices remain strong, indicating that domestic restocking demand and tightening supply have fully offset the supply shock from the mine, and it is expected that the mine's output increase will have a controllable impact on the market.

Target Aspects

The profit distribution in the tungsten industry chain follows a typical "smile curve," with companies at both ends of the industry chain likely to benefit fully from the upward cycle of tungsten prices. Recommended targets: CHINATUNGSTEN HIGHTECH (000657.SZ), Anyuan Coal Industry (600397.SH). Related targets: XTC (600549.SH), ZY-Tungsten (002378.SZ), Xianglu Tungsten (002842.SZ).

Risk Warning

Risks of increased tungsten mine supply, geopolitical risks, and manufacturing growth not meeting expectations