According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guojin Securities released a research report stating that the scale effect will drive down costs in 2025, and the gross profit margin elasticity of wind turbine manufacturing is expected to be significantly released in 2026. Considering the limited recovery in the overall average price of wind turbines in 2024, it is expected that the gross profit margin elasticity of complete machine manufacturing enterprises will be relatively small in 2025. However, under the expectation of a 30% growth rate in industry installations in 2025, it is estimated that the sales and management expense ratio of leading complete machine enterprises is expected to decrease by 1-2 percentage points. As price increase orders for Q4 2024 and FY 2025 gradually enter the delivery and receipt stage, we are optimistic about a significant improvement in the gross profit margin of complete machine enterprises in 2026.
In horizontal comparison with other links in the wind power industry chain, the valuation of the complete machine link is generally low. The core reason is that in the past, the majority of profits in the complete machine link came from wind farm transfers and power generation businesses. With the release of profit elasticity in the manufacturing business, we are optimistic that the complete machine link will achieve valuation recovery while improving performance. Key recommendations include Goldwind (002202.SZ), Yunda (300772.SZ), MYSE (301291.SZ), and SANY (688349.SH).
The main views of Guojin Securities are as follows:
Market concerns about the sustainability of the strong volume and price performance of the wind power industry in 2025 have caused the stock prices of complete machine companies to not fully reflect their potential profit improvement elasticity. Since Q4 2024, the bidding prices for domestic onshore wind turbines have continued to recover. The firm statistics show that the average bidding price for onshore wind turbines from January to July this year was 1552 yuan/kW, an increase of 9% compared to the entire year of 2024. However, the stock prices of related companies have not fully reflected the huge elastic potential that this strong price performance can bring to corporate profits. The firm believes this is mainly due to market concerns about demand uncertainty next year and the sustainability of this round of price increases, which is also a significant expectation gap currently existing in the market for the wind power sector, especially in the complete machine link.
Demand-side expectation gap: Multiple leading indicators are gradually verifying that domestic onshore wind demand is still expected to achieve year-on-year positive growth in 2026. The market believes that the strong wind power demand in 2025 is mainly due to the rush for installation at the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and thus judges that there are significant downside risks for onshore wind demand in 2026. However, the firm believes that under the background of comprehensive market-oriented transactions, the advantages of the wind power output curve and the space for compressing non-technical costs will significantly enhance its ability to maintain a high return rate compared to photovoltaics, thereby shifting the investment focus of domestic new energy sources towards wind power during the 15th Five-Year Plan. Combining recent multidimensional data verification, the firm believes that as the starting year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, domestic onshore wind demand in 2026 is still expected to maintain growth: 1) As a leading indicator ahead of wind turbine bidding, the approved scale of wind power from January to July reached 106GW, a year-on-year increase of 37%, significantly guiding optimistic demand for 2026; 2) Datang recently launched a scale of up to 10GW for the 2025-2026 onshore wind turbine procurement, a year-on-year increase of 67%; 3) The bidding for wind turbines in 2024 reached 164GW, and from January to July 2025, only central state-owned enterprises bid for about 60GW. Even if the bidding volume in the second half of 2025 remains low due to the transitional period of market-oriented trading policies, it is still sufficient to support growth in installations in 2026.
Price-side expectation gap: Complete machine enterprises and owners are &#34;moving towards each other,&#34; optimistic about the sustainability of this round of wind turbine price increases. The market believes that the current recovery in wind turbine prices is mainly due to strong demand this year and full orders for wind turbine companies. However, the firm believes that in addition to the high prosperity of demand, the price increase of wind turbines is also a &#34;mutual effort&#34; between complete machine manufacturers and operating business owners
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<li>On the whole machine enterprise side: After years of large-scale wind turbine competition and price wars, the manufacturing business of wind turbine companies is generally under pressure for profitability, with a strong willingness to self-discipline and maintain prices. After signing the &#34;Self-Discipline Convention&#34; in October 2024, the trend of bidding prices warming up is significant; 2) On the owner side: The rapid large-scale development of wind turbines and low-price competition have led to increased operation and maintenance costs and higher failure/accident rates of wind turbines. Owners are motivated and willing to pay a premium for high-reliability products. Some central enterprises have taken the lead in revising the evaluation criteria for price segments in bidding rules. Against the backdrop of the National Development and Reform Commission's proposal to &#34;deeply promote the reform of the bidding system,&#34; the optimization of the bidding mechanism is expected to spread and support the continuous warming of wind turbine prices. 3) After the bidding scale for wind turbines declined month-on-month in June and July due to the phased wait-and-see sentiment downstream following Document No. 136, the winning bid prices in July remained stable month-on-month, initially verifying that the high prosperity on the demand side is not the only factor for the current round of wind turbine price increases.</li>
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Profitability elasticity release rhythm: In 2025, the scale effect is expected to drive down costs, and in 2026, the gross profit margin elasticity of wind turbine manufacturing is expected to be significantly released. Considering that the overall average price of wind turbines in 2024 is expected to have limited warming, the bank expects the gross profit margin elasticity of whole machine enterprises on the manufacturing side to be relatively small in 2025. However, under the expectation of a 30% growth rate in industry installations in 2025, it is estimated that the sales and management expense ratio of leading whole machine enterprises is expected to decrease by 1-2 percentage points. As price increase orders for Q4 2024 and FY 2025 gradually enter the delivery and receipt phase, the bank is optimistic about a significant improvement in the gross profit margin of whole machine enterprises in 2026.
Exports + offshore wind build long-term growth potential, and the proportion of high-profit orders is expected to increase. The bank believes that although the growth rate of domestic onshore wind installations may gradually slow down, the overseas market and domestic offshore wind will still support the long-term growth potential of whole machine companies. 1) Overseas: Domestic whole machine enterprises have gradually achieved technological and cost leadership, and have already seen a significant increase in orders (approximately 28GW of new overseas orders in 2024). Considering that the overseas delivery cycle is generally 2-3 years, it is expected that deliveries will increase in 2026-2027. The next stop for going abroad looks promising for leading domestic enterprises to enter the European offshore wind market, with Mingyang Smart Energy having secured nearly 4GW of orders. 2) Offshore wind: The central government has repeatedly emphasized the marine economy this year, and the promotion of deep-sea demonstration projects in key provinces is accelerating. Currently, there are 35GW of approved but not yet started offshore wind projects in China. A new round of offshore wind competition continues to land, and the demand for offshore wind installations during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is expected to continue to rise, with the annual new installation center expected to increase from less than 10GW during the 13th Five-Year Plan period to 20-25GW.
Risk Warning: Intensified price competition, rising raw material prices

002202

02208

601615

Guotai Junan Securities released a research report indicating that the wind power equipment industry, after years of internal competition, is expected to welcome a reversal with both volume and price rising. As the price increase orders for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the 2025 fiscal year enter the delivery phase, it is expected that the gross profit margin on the manufacturing side of equipment companies will significantly improve in 2026. Although the overall average price is expected to have limited recovery in 2025, the industry's installation growth rate is anticipated to be 30%. Key recommendations include Goldwind, Yunda, MYSE, and SANY

Zhitong

Goldwind

GOLDWIND

MYSE

Guotai Junan Securities: After years of internal competition in the wind power equipment sector, a reversal is finally achieved with both volume and price rising to welcome a double hit