Cinda Securities: The implementation of the "136" document in multiple regions has come to a conclusion, and the rush for solar installations has ended

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Xinda Securities released a research report stating that the existing scale of electricity prices in Shanxi is expected to expand the capacity compensation range by imitating the "Gansu model." Currently, the situation regarding mechanism electricity prices and the amount of electricity included in the mechanism across various regions is still unclear, and the mechanism electricity prices for incremental projects need to be determined through bidding, with the uncertainty of bidding results also affecting the subsequent enthusiasm for new energy investment. In the short term, the enthusiasm and pace of new energy investment may be impacted against the backdrop of unclear revenue prospects. The demand for electricity trading strategies and forecasts is expected to continue to rise, benefiting relevant service providers.

Although the approval of thermal power installations gradually took effect in 2022, easing the power supply-demand contradiction, some economically developed regions still face regional supply-demand gaps. Under the current situation of rapid growth in new energy installations and the continued emphasis on safety and supply in relevant energy policies, the peak value of coal power is expected to continue to stand out. Looking ahead, the construction of a new power system under the dual carbon goals may continue to rely on the richness and investment of system adjustment means; the formal introduction of the capacity electricity price mechanism clarifies the foundational status of coal power, and the mechanisms for the electricity spot market and ancillary services market are expected to continue to be promoted. Therefore, with the ongoing advancement of electricity market reform, electricity prices are expected to achieve a steady increase.

The main viewpoints of Xinda Securities are as follows:

Five regions have introduced connection mechanisms, with significant differentiation in the strength of existing and incremental guarantees

The existing scale of electricity prices in Shanxi is expected to expand the capacity compensation range by imitating the "Gansu model." Hainan guarantees 80-90% of existing electricity, but only provides 80% protection for offshore wind, 75% for onshore wind and photovoltaics, with execution periods of 14 years for offshore wind and 12 years for onshore wind and photovoltaics; Liaoning has good protection for existing projects, but poor protection for incremental projects: the mechanism electricity amount is determined at 55% of the incremental project's grid electricity; the mechanism electricity price is set in the range of 0.18-0.33 yuan/kWh; the execution period is 12 years; Gansu only provides 15.4 billion kWh of electricity guarantee for existing projects, with the guarantee ratio for conventional centralized new energy projects likely far below 20%, and incremental projects only receiving an upper limit of 80% of electricity inclusion and a 12-year execution period; Ningxia has only 10% for both existing and incremental electricity, with an execution period of only 10 years.

Looking ahead: We still need to wait for the detailed rules of the mechanism electricity price to continue to be implemented, which will benefit trading strategies and forecasting services. Currently, the situation regarding mechanism electricity prices and the amount of electricity included in the mechanism across various regions is still unclear, and the mechanism electricity prices for incremental projects need to be determined through bidding, with the uncertainty of bidding results also affecting the subsequent enthusiasm for new energy investment. In the short term, the enthusiasm and pace of new energy investment may be impacted against the backdrop of unclear revenue prospects. The demand for electricity trading strategies and forecasts is expected to continue to rise, benefiting relevant service providers.

Monthly electricity demand analysis: Electricity consumption growth rate recovered month-on-month in June

In June 2025, the total electricity consumption of society increased by 5.40% year-on-year. By industry: The electricity consumption growth rate of the secondary industry has somewhat recovered, while the growth rate of residential electricity consumption continues to rise: In June 2025, the year-on-year growth rates of electricity consumption in the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries were +4.90%, +3.20%, and +9.00%, respectively, with residential electricity consumption increasing by 10.80% year-on-year By sector: The electricity consumption in the manufacturing sector has rebounded, and the growth rate of electricity consumption in the high-tech equipment and high-energy-consuming sectors has improved month-on-month. In terms of sub-industries, the top three electricity consumption shares in the high-tech equipment manufacturing sector are the computer and communication equipment manufacturing industry, the metal products industry, and the electrical machinery manufacturing industry. In the consumption sector, the top three shares are in wholesale and retail, transportation, warehousing and postal services, and real estate. Among the six major high-energy-consuming sectors, the top three shares are in electricity and heat production and supply, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling, and ferrous metal smelting and rolling.

By region, the eastern coastal provinces lead in electricity consumption, while the western provinces lead in growth rate. In terms of elasticity coefficient, the elasticity coefficient of electricity consumption in the second quarter of 2025 is 0.921.

Monthly electricity production analysis: Overall power generation has rebounded month-on-month, and thermal power generation continues to grow positively

In June 2025, national power generation increased by 1.70%. By unit type, thermal power generation increased by 1.10% year-on-year; hydropower generation decreased by 4.00% year-on-year; nuclear power generation increased by 10.30% year-on-year; wind power generation increased by 5.50% year-on-year; solar power generation increased by 28.70% year-on-year. In terms of new installed capacity, in June 2025, the national new installed capacity was 28.4 million kilowatts, including 8.24 million kilowatts of new thermal power installed, 680,000 kilowatts of new hydropower installed, 5.11 million kilowatts of new wind power installed, and 14.36 million kilowatts of new photovoltaic installed.

In terms of power generation equipment utilization, in May 2025, the national average utilization hours of power generation equipment were 1,504 hours. Among them, the average utilization hours for thermal power were 1,968 hours; for hydropower, 1,377 hours; for nuclear power, 3,882 hours; for wind power, 1,087 hours; and for photovoltaic, 560 hours.

Regarding coal inventory, daily consumption, and Three Gorges discharge situation, as of August 14, inland coal inventory increased week-on-week, while daily consumption decreased week-on-week; coastal coal inventory increased week-on-week, while daily consumption decreased week-on-week. As of August 15, the water level of the Three Gorges decreased year-on-year and month-on-month.

Monthly electricity market data analysis: August agency purchase electricity average price rebounded from the bottom month-on-month

The average agency purchase electricity price in August was 384.25 yuan/MWh, an increase of 1.18% month-on-month and a decrease of 2.46% year-on-year.

Investment suggestion: After experiencing multiple rounds of tension in electricity supply and demand, the electricity sector is expected to welcome profit improvement and value reassessment

Although the electricity supply and demand contradiction has eased with the gradual implementation of the thermal power installation approval wave in 2022, there are still regional supply and demand gaps in some economically developed areas. Under the current situation of rapid growth in new energy installations and the continued emphasis on safety and supply in relevant energy policies, the peak value of coal power is expected to continue to stand out.

Looking ahead, the construction of a new power system under the dual carbon goals may continue to rely on the richness and investment of system adjustment means; the formal introduction of the capacity price mechanism clarifies the foundational position of coal power, and the mechanisms for the electricity spot market and ancillary services market are expected to continue to be promoted. Therefore, with the continuous advancement of electricity market reform, electricity prices are expected to achieve a steady increase. In addition, with the National Development and Reform Commission increasing the supply guarantee efforts for long-term coal contracts, the actual performance rate of long-term coal contracts is expected to marginally rise, indicating that the cost side of coal power enterprises is relatively controllable At the same time, integrated coal and electricity companies are expected to achieve performance growth while stabilizing profits, relying on their own coal or high proportion of long-term coal supply agreements.

The performance of power operators is expected to improve significantly, and power operators are likely to benefit.

1) Integrated coal and electricity companies: Xinji Energy (601918.SH), Shaanxi Energy (001286.SZ), Huaihe Energy (600575.SH), etc.; 2) National coal and electricity leaders: GDPD (600795.SH), Huaneng International (600011.SH), Huadian International (600027.SH), etc.; 3) Regional leaders in areas with tight electricity supply: Wenergy Co., Ltd. (000543.SZ), ZZEPC (600023.SH), Sheneng Co., Ltd. (600642.SH), Guangdong Power A (000539.SZ), etc.; 4) Hydropower operators: Yangtze Power (600900.SH), SDIC Power (600886.SH), Chuan Investment Energy (600674.SH), Huaneng Hydropower (600025.SH); 5) Equipment manufacturers and flexibility transformation beneficiaries: Dongfang Electric (600875.SH), Qingda Environmental Protection (688501.SH), Huaguang Huaneng (600475.SH), etc.

Risk Factors

A slowdown in the macro economy may lead to electricity consumption growth falling short of expectations, the progress of electricity market reform is slow, and the enforcement of long-term coal supply policies may not meet expectations