China Post Securities: Low base + easing competition, focus on improving profitability in the consumer building materials sector in the second half of the year
China Post Securities released a research report indicating that although the demand in the consumer building materials industry remains under pressure, positive signals are gradually emerging. It is expected that the industry will gradually improve in the second half of the year, with real estate construction starts and construction data likely to stabilize, and the logic of profit improvement will gradually be realized. It is recommended to pay attention to companies such as ORIENTAL YUHONG, SKSHU, Beijing New Building Materials, and DEHUA TB. The cement industry is entering its peak season, with demand recovering slowly, and demand is expected to warm up in August. The glass industry is facing inventory pressure, with demand continuing to decline. The AI industry chain will boost demand for fiberglass. Risk warnings include policies not being implemented as expected, among others
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, China Postal Securities has released a research report stating that although the demand in the consumer building materials industry remains under pressure, positive signals are continuously emerging. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, it is expected that the industry has gradually moved from the left side to the right side. On one hand, the real estate construction and construction data, which lead the industry fundamentals, are expected to enter a stabilization range. On the other hand, under the background of a low base and easing competition, the logic of profit improvement will gradually be realized in more categories. It is recommended to pay attention to: ORIENTAL YUHONG (002271.SZ), SKSHU (603737.SH), Beixin Building Materials (000786.SZ), DEHUA TB (002043.SZ).
The main views of China Postal Securities are as follows:
Cement: Gradually entering the peak season, overall demand recovering slowly
On July 1, the Cement Association released a document responding to the anti-involution policy, judging that it would promote better implementation of policies to limit overproduction. From a medium-term perspective, the cement industry's capacity is expected to continue to decline under the restriction of overproduction policies, significantly improving the capacity utilization rate. Currently, the cement industry is at a low point in both demand and prices during the off-season. In late August, as the cement market approaches the peak season, it is expected that the industry will gradually see price increases after demand warms up in August. Pay attention to: Conch Cement, HUAXIN CEMENT.
Glass: Prices fluctuate and decline, short-term inventory pressure is high
The demand side of the industry has shown a continuous downward trend due to the impact of real estate, with demand performing reasonably well during the off-season from June to August. However, the supply-demand contradiction still exists, and downstream terminal demand has limited improvement. On the supply side, considering that most companies in the float glass industry can currently meet environmental protection requirements, it is judged that the anti-involution policy will not lead to a one-size-fits-all capacity clearance, but will still raise environmental protection requirements and costs, accelerating the industry's cold repair progress. Pay attention to: Qibin Group.
Glass Fiber: The AI industry chain is expected to boost demand, with strong performance in segmented fields
The demand for traditional non-alkali coarse sand has been flat, while segmented fields are performing well. This year, the industry is driven by the demand boom from the AI industry chain, with low dielectric products experiencing simultaneous increases in both volume and price. Currently, the structure upgrade of first, second, and third generation (Q fabric) products is clear, and industry demand is expected to see explosive growth alongside AI, with a positive outlook on the sustained trend of simultaneous volume and price increases. Pay attention to: China National Materials.
Risk Warning: The implementation of the anti-involution policy may fall short of expectations, and there is a risk of unexpected downward pressure on real estate and infrastructure demand
