HuaChuang Securities: Slight increase in highway and port performance, railway performance under pressure, continue to be optimistic about the value of dividend asset allocation

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Huachuang Securities has released a research report stating that it continues to be optimistic about the long-term allocation value of transportation dividend assets, emphasizing that industrial logic may drive valuation elasticity. 1. Highways: The bank expects a rebound in the performance of the highway main business, focusing on the optimization direction of toll road policies and the proactive actions of local state-owned assets. 2. Ports: Long-term value may enhance valuation elasticity. 3. Railways: Long-term + reform dividends.

The main viewpoints of Huachuang Securities are as follows:

Highways: Slight differentiation in toll revenue in 2025H1, strong performance resilience

1. In 2025H1, the toll revenue of listed companies showed slight differentiation. The nine major highway listed companies achieved a total toll revenue of 27.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 0.7%. The top three in toll revenue: Shandong Highway (4.914 billion yuan) > Ninghu Highway (4.604 billion yuan) > China Merchants Highway (4.478 billion yuan). 2) Performance: The overall net profit growth rate attributable to the parent company in the highway industry for 2025H1 was 3.1%. The performance growth rate ranking for H1: ShenGao (+24%) > YueGao A (+23.6%) > GanYue Highway (+21.8%) > Dongguan Holdings (+20.5%) > Sichuan Chengyu (+19.9%); The overall net profit growth rate attributable to the parent company in the highway industry for Q2 was 1.5%, with the performance growth rate ranking for Q2: Dongguan Holdings (+699.2%) > Modern Investment (+80.6%) > ShenGao (+59.1%) > GanYue Highway (+42.1%) > Sichuan Chengyu (+24.2%).

The overall net profit growth rate excluding non-recurring items in the highway industry for 2025H1 was 1.5%, and for Q2 it was -1.5%. 3) Current dividend yields: Sichuan Chengyu (5.1%) > Shandong Highway (4.6%) > YueGao A (4.4%) > Dongguan Holdings (4.1%) > WanTong Highway (4.1%) > ChuTian Highway (4.1%) > Shanxi Highway (4.1%) > China Merchants Highway (4.0%).

Ports: Container traffic continues to be highly prosperous, and bulk cargo is expected to improve month-on-month

1. Throughput: In the first half of the year, national throughput maintained steady growth. According to data from the Ministry of Transport, the total cargo throughput of national ports in H1 increased by 4.0% year-on-year, and container throughput increased by 6.9% year-on-year. From January to July, cargo throughput increased by 4.4% year-on-year, and container throughput increased by 6.2% year-on-year. 2) Performance: In 2025H1, the port industry achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 21.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, with Q2 showing a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, indicating strong growth resilience in the industry.

H1 performance growth rate ranking: LIAONING PORT (+110.8%) > Ningbo Port (+16.4%) > XMPD (+9.4%) > Nanjing Port (+8.8%) > QDPI (+7.6%); Q2 performance growth rate ranking: LIAONING PORT (+821.8%) > XMPD (+51.3%) > Beibu Gulf Port (+40.4%) > Ningbo Port (+28.1%) > QDPI (+8.6%). The significant increase in performance of LIAONING PORT is mainly due to the company's recovery of long-term receivables, reversal of credit impairment losses, and significant year-on-year growth in investment income In the first half of 2025, the overall net profit growth rate of the port industry, excluding non-recurring items, was 4.5%, with Q2 at 4.8%. 3) Cargo types: The growth rates of major cargo types varied significantly, with containers and iron ore showing the fastest growth in the first half:

Containers (+7.7%) > Iron ore (+3.8%) > Coal (-1.8%) > Crude oil (-3.5%). 4) Current dividend yields: Tangshan Port (5.0%) > Qingdao Port (3.7%) > China Merchants Port (3.6%) > Shanghai International Port Group (3.5%) > Chongqing Port (3.1%) > Ningbo Port (3.0%).

Railway: Performance decline in 25H1, coal remains under pressure

1. Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway: In 25H1, it achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.316 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.64%, with Q2 net profit attributable to the parent company at 3.352 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.22%. The company's performance in the first half of the year was relatively stable, with the Jingfu Anhui Company achieving semi-annual profitability for the first time. 2) Daqin Railway: In 25H1, it achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.115 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 29.82%, with Q2 net profit attributable to the parent company at 1.544 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 45.2%. The company's performance decline was mainly affected by a decrease in transport volume, business structure adjustments, and the cultivation of new business markets. 3) Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway: In 25H1, it achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.109 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.55%, with Q2 net profit attributable to the parent company at 641 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.38%. The company's passenger and freight operating income both saw growth in the first half of the year. 4) Current dividend yields: Daqin Railway (4.3%) > Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway (2.2%) > Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway (2.2%).

Risk Warning: Economic downturn, reforms falling short of expectations, and capital operations such as mergers and acquisitions not meeting expectations