Guosheng Securities: HELENS restarts direct store opening plan, maintains "Overweight" rating

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guosheng Securities released a research report stating that HELENS (09869) is firmly pursuing a platform-based strategic transformation, continuously optimizing existing stores, rapidly expanding partner stores, and beginning to validate the community space composite model. The company has strong supply chain capabilities, and with the improvement of the consumption environment and the successful implementation of new business models, it is expected to support a rapid release of performance. Due to the current consumption environment, daily sales in stores are under pressure. It is estimated that the company's operating revenue for 2025-2027 will be 650 million, 790 million, and 950 million yuan respectively, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 100 million, 130 million, and 160 million yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating. Event: On August 29, the company announced its mid-term performance for 2025. In the first half of 2025, it achieved revenue of 290 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.0%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 50 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.8%, with same-store daily sales down 17.6% year-on-year. A mid-term dividend of 146 million yuan was declared. The main points of Guosheng Securities are as follows: Adhere to platform transformation, continuous expansion of Hi Beer partner stores, and restart the direct-operated store plan In terms of the number of stores, the total number of the company's store network increased from 560 at the end of 2024 to 580 in the first half of 2025. 2) In terms of store types, at the end of the reporting period, the number of direct-operated/franchised/Hi Beer partner taverns was 109/39/432, with changes of -3/-3/+26 during the reporting period. The proportion of partner stores at the end of the period reached 74.5%, making it the main driver of store network expansion. 3) In terms of store distribution, during the reporting period, the number of stores in first/second/third-tier and below cities/outside mainland China increased by +1/-6/+24/+1 to 36/140/399/5 stores, with third-tier and below cities being the main areas for store expansion. 4) The company restarted its direct-operated store plan in May 2025, aiming to upgrade the store environment and improve the customer experience by opening new stores in new markets and iterating existing markets, while reducing costs such as rent and labor to enhance operational performance. As of the reporting date, 10 stores have been opened or are set to open soon. Direct-operated daily sales recover, partner stores under pressure, cost optimization ensures profitability In terms of daily sales: In the first half of 2025, the overall daily sales per store for direct-operated and franchised taverns rose to 8,300 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, with daily sales in first/second/third-tier and below cities being 9,000/8,800/7,700 yuan, with year-on-year increases of +3.4%/+18.9%/+6.9% respectively. The overall daily sales for Hi Beer partner taverns were 4,200 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.2%, showing some pressure. 2) In terms of same-store performance: Same-store average daily revenue decreased by 17.6% year-on-year to 9,000 yuan. 3) In terms of profitability: Despite pressure on revenue and same-store performance, the company's profitability shows resilience. The gross profit margin contributed by direct-operated taverns increased from 70% in the same period last year to 74%, with gross profit margins for self-owned beverages and third-party beverages rising to 80.2% and 57.8% respectively, reflecting improved supply chain management capabilities. At the same time, due to the company's proactive reduction of rental costs and improvement of labor efficiency, costs such as employee benefits and human service expenses/usage rights asset depreciation have significantly decreased, with year-on-year reductions of -36.2%/-47.2%, leading to an increase in same-store operating profit margin year-on-year in Q2 2025 Multiple Measures to Improve Same-Store Performance, Strengthen Core Competitiveness, and Explore New Models Improving Same-Store Performance: The company plans to restore same-store performance through multiple measures, including deepening performance incentives, optimizing store operations, continuously optimizing the product matrix, and strengthening the marketing system. 2) The company will continue to focus on a platform-based development strategy, expanding stores through the Hi Beer Partner Program on one hand, and restarting the expansion of directly-operated stores on the other hand. At the same time, the company will continue to strengthen the management of supply chain integration and the creation of spatial environments as its two core competitive advantages, and rely on this to explore new models for third spaces. Risk Warning: 1) Platform transformation may not meet expectations; 2) Fluctuations in raw material prices; 3) Intensified industry competition