Tianfeng Securities: High start of work + low inventory, viscose staple fiber welcomes the traditional peak season

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Tianfeng Securities released a research report stating that viscose staple fiber is the most important type of regenerated fiber, and China is a major producing country. In recent years, China's viscose staple fiber production capacity has decreased, and leading companies in the industry have continuously increased their market share through mergers and acquisitions and capacity expansion. Currently, the industry is characterized by high operating rates and low inventory levels. With the arrival of the traditional demand peak season in the third quarter, the industry's prosperity is expected to improve. In the context of "anti-involution," it is recommended to pay attention to leading companies with scale advantages: SANYOU CHEMICAL (600409.SH) and ZHONGTAI CHEMICAL (002092.SZ).

The main points of Tianfeng Securities are as follows:

Viscose staple fiber is the most important regenerated fiber, and China is a major producing country

Regenerated fibers include viscose fiber, acetate fiber, lyocell, modal, and cupro fiber. In 2023, the global production of viscose fiber accounted for 80% of the total production of regenerated fibers. According to fiber length, viscose fiber can be divided into viscose staple fiber and viscose filament, among which viscose staple fiber accounts for the largest share in China's viscose fiber market, approximately 95% (by production share, 2024).

In terms of production, according to TextileExchange statistics, the global production of viscose fiber in 2023 was about 6.3 million tons, of which China's viscose fiber production was 4.12 million tons, accounting for 65% of global production, making it the largest producing country.

In recent years, China's viscose staple fiber production capacity has decreased, and the industry concentration is high (CR3>70%)

Due to the large amount of waste acid and waste gas generated during the production of viscose staple fiber, which causes environmental pollution, the industry's new production capacity is constrained by relevant environmental protection and industrial policies. At the same time, from 2019 to 2023, the industry experienced long-term losses due to overcapacity, coupled with the impact of trade frictions and demand slowdown, leading to the elimination of some backward production capacity and insufficient willingness to invest in new capacity. The total production capacity of the domestic viscose industry decreased from 5.17 million tons in 2021 to 4.81 million tons in 2024.

In recent years, leading companies in the industry have continuously increased their market share through mergers and acquisitions and capacity expansion. As of 2024, the top three companies in terms of domestic industry capacity are Sateri (1.8 million tons), ZHONGTAI CHEMICAL (880,000 tons), and SANYOU CHEMICAL (800,000 tons), with a CR3 of 72%.

Current industry "high operating rate + low inventory," focus on price and profit recovery

Since 2025, viscose staple fiber has shown a state of high operating rates and low inventory levels. With the arrival of the traditional demand peak season in the third quarter, the industry's prosperity is expected to improve. Every year in July, downstream companies begin concentrated procurement, and typically, the inventory of viscose staple fiber decreases in the second half of the year. Currently (as of September 5, 2025), the operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is 88.6%, the highest level for the same period in the past five years; at the same time, factory inventory levels are at 128,000 tons, below the average inventory level (187,000 tons) for 2020-2024.

Downstream demand is mainly for yarn, with the non-woven fabric sector providing incremental demand

The downstream application areas of viscose staple fiber are mainly divided into two categories: yarn (including cotton yarn and blended yarn) and non-woven fabric, widely used in the textile and garment sectors; among them, yarn is the main consumption area for viscose staple fiber, while in recent years, non-woven fabric has been the main source of incremental demand for viscose staple fiber From 2014 to 2024, China's apparent consumption of viscose staple fiber increased from 2.929 million tons to 4.348 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 4.0%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption was 2.528 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%.

In the context of "anti-involution," it is recommended to focus on leading enterprises with scale advantages.

SANYOU CHEMICAL (600409.SH): The company has a prominent differentiation rate advantage in viscose fiber, with an annual production capacity of 800,000 tons of viscose staple fiber (40% primarily ordinary fibers, 60% primarily differentiated, customized, and high-end fibers, involving high white fibers, modal fibers, flame-retardant fibers, environmentally friendly fibers, regenerated fibers, protein fibers, and China red fibers, among others). It is the third-largest viscose staple fiber producer in China, with a market share of approximately 17%. The company's differentiation rate for viscose staple fiber products is industry-leading, and it is the first in the country to pass the European Level 1 Eco-Textiles Quality Certification.

ZHONGTAI CHEMICAL (002092.SZ): The company has an integrated circular economy advantage, relying on the abundant natural resources of coal, raw salt, and limestone in the Xinjiang region, and has developed into a competitive enterprise with two main businesses: chlor-alkali chemical and viscose textile industries. The company has a production capacity of 880,000 tons/year of viscose fiber, making it the second-largest producer in the country.

Risk Warning: Risks of price fluctuations in viscose raw materials, the actual occurrence of the forecasts in this report, safety and environmental risks, and risks of continued economic downturn triggered by overseas economic decline