According to Zhitong Finance APP, on Tuesday, the upward momentum of the three major indices paused, with retail sales showing steady performance having little impact on trading. The U.S. stock market struggled to gain traction near historical highs. As the market awaits the anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the dollar exchange rate fell, and gold prices broke through $3,700 per ounce for the first time during the session.
[U.S. Stocks] At the close, the S&amp;P 500 index fell 0.13% to 6,606.76 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.27% to 45,757.9 points; the NASDAQ Composite Index fell 0.07% to 22,333.96 points. Oracle (ORCL.US) opened high and closed low, rising 1.4%, Tesla (TSLA.US) rose 2.8%, and NVIDIA (NVDA.US) fell 1.6%. The NASDAQ China Golden Dragon Index rose 1.7%, Alibaba (BABA.US) rose 2.6%, and Nio (NIO.US) rose 8%.
[European Stocks] The German DAX 30 index fell 397.68 points, down 1.68%, to 23,336.07 points; the UK FTSE 100 index fell 86.48 points, down 0.93%, to 9,190.55 points; the French CAC 40 index fell 78.71 points, down 1.00%, to 7,818.22 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 67.15 points, down 1.23%, to 5,373.25 points; the Spanish IBEX 35 index fell 230.31 points, down 1.50%, to 15,158.19 points; the Italian FTSE MIB index fell 540.72 points, down 1.26%, to 42,513.00 points.
[Crude Oil] The price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.22 to $64.52 per barrel, an increase of 1.93%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for November delivery rose $1.03 to $68.47 per barrel, an increase of 1.53%.
[Foreign Exchange] The U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, fell 0.68% that day, closing at 96.639 in the foreign exchange market. As of the close of the New York foreign exchange market, 1 euro exchanged for 1.1871 dollars, up from 1.1769 dollars the previous trading day; 1 pound exchanged for 1.3662 dollars, up from 1.3605 dollars the previous trading day. 1 dollar exchanged for 146.40 yen, down from 147.32 yen the previous trading day; 1 dollar exchanged for 0.7864 Swiss francs, down from 0.7942 Swiss francs the previous trading day; 1 dollar exchanged for 1.3738 Canadian dollars, down from 1.3778 Canadian dollars the previous trading day; 1 dollar exchanged for 9.2199 Swedish kronor, down from 9.2722 Swedish kronor the previous trading day.
[Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin rose over 1.3% to $117,005.28; Ethereum fell 0.34% to $4,510.81.
[Gold] The price of gold futures for recent contracts set a new historical closing high, continuing to rise against the backdrop of market expectations for an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Gold futures rose 0.2% to $3,688.90 per ounce, marking the third consecutive trading day of setting a historical high for recent contracts
Bank of America stated in a report that economic data indicates the current financial environment is favorable for gold. The bank noted, &#34;Concerns about stagflation—typically beneficial for gold—remain the focus for participants in the precious metals market.&#34; Bank of America also mentioned that the 2.9% Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading in August also supports gold. &#34;Since 2001, gold prices have never declined when the U.S. CPI is above 2% and the Federal Reserve is implementing monetary easing.&#34;
【Macroeconomic News】
House Republicans unveil temporary funding bill, excluding Democrats' healthcare policy demands. House Republicans have unveiled a temporary spending bill aimed at preventing a government shutdown on October 1, challenging Democrats as the bill does not include the healthcare policies requested by them. This short-term legislation will keep government agencies operational until November 21 and provide new security funding for lawmakers, judicial, and executive officials. Previously, conservative activist Charlie Kirk was fatally shot last week. To overcome procedural hurdles, the bill needs at least seven Democratic votes in the Senate to reach the 60-vote threshold for passage. Despite Trump publicly calling for Republicans to unite in support of the temporary funding, the bill may still face difficulties in the House due to the slim Republican majority in the face of Democratic opposition.
U.S. retail data exceeds expectations, with tariffs pushing up prices as a partial reason. Data shows that U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% month-on-month in August, far exceeding expectations, partly due to tariffs driving up prices rather than an increase in actual sales volume. Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo, stated, &#34;Although consumer spending shows some inherent resilience, the overall growth rate is slowing. Households still have purchasing power, but concerns about the labor market are increasing, which means that consumption growth may slow for the remainder of the year.&#34; A survey released by the New York Federal Reserve on Monday showed that inflation-adjusted household spending in August fell to its lowest level in nearly four and a half years. However, more consumers are still choosing to purchase electronics, appliances, furniture, real estate, and vehicles, while also engaging in home repairs or going on vacations.
Fed's mouthpiece: Powell's stance on the job market this week may indicate future policy direction. &#34;Fed's mouthpiece&#34; Nick Timiraos wrote recently: &#34;A rate cut by the Fed this week is basically a foregone conclusion, and investors will focus on whether Powell will further advance his recent shift in stance. Investors will closely watch a key piece of information: whether Powell and his colleagues will set the total number of rate cuts for this year at three, or maintain the expectations from June (when the job market appeared more robust, and a minority of officials anticipated two cuts)? Last month, in a highly watched speech, Powell expressed greater concern about the job market than some of his colleagues did about inflation at that time. The question now is: after the weak non-farm payroll report in August, will Powell further reinforce this concern? If he does, it will confirm the market's expectations for &#34;continued rate cuts in the upcoming meetings,&#34; but it may also require overcoming some colleagues' concerns—those who are hesitant to commit to such a rapid policy shift due to doubts about the &#34;neutral interest rate level&#34; and &#34;whether rates should be adjusted to neutral.&#34;
U.S. August Industrial Production Nearly Flat; Trade Policies and Prices Become Industry Obstacles. Data shows that U.S. industrial production in August saw almost no growth, reflecting a slight increase in manufacturing activity while utility output declined. Manufacturing output, which accounts for three-quarters of total industrial output, rose by 0.2% in August after a slight decline in July, better than expected. Excluding automobiles, factory output edged up by 0.1%. Mining and energy extraction grew by 0.9%, while utility output fell by 2%, the largest drop since March. In recent months, uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policies has suppressed capital spending, making it difficult for manufacturing to gain a foothold. Rising prices and uneven demand have also posed challenges for the industry. The White House announced some tariff adjustments in late July, providing some clarity for businesses. However, the U.S. has yet to reach trade agreements with several countries, and the U.S. Supreme Court plans to debate a case regarding the legality of most of Trump's tariffs in early November.
U.S. Builder Confidence Index Remains Unchanged in September; Rate Cut Expectations Boost Sales Outlook. The U.S. Builder Confidence Index remained unchanged in September, but lower mortgage rates and market expectations for the Federal Reserve to soon cut the federal funds rate have boosted home sales expectations for the coming months. Buddy Hughes, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), stated that although builders are still grappling with rising construction costs, the recent decline in mortgage rates over the past month should help stimulate housing demand. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz noted, &#34;The Fed is expected to lower the federal funds rate at this week's meeting, which will help reduce borrowing costs for builders and developers. Additionally, according to Freddie Mac data, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has fallen by 23 basis points over the past four weeks to 6.35%. This is the lowest level since mid-October last year and a positive signal for future housing demand.&#34;
UK to Announce Closer Cooperation with the U.S. on Cryptocurrency. According to informed sources, the UK and the U.S. will announce deeper cooperation in the field of digital assets such as cryptocurrency, thereby bringing the UK closer to the U.S. following Trump's embrace of the industry. Sources indicated that UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen discussed efforts to establish closer transatlantic collaboration on digital assets and capital markets on Tuesday. Participants included cryptocurrency companies Coinbase, Circle, and Ripple, as well as Citibank, Bank of America, and Barclays. One source mentioned that the agreement was reached at the &#34;last minute.&#34; Before Trump's state visit to the UK this week, cryptocurrency industry organizations sent a letter to the UK government last Thursday urging the inclusion of digital assets and blockchain in any new agreements with the U.S., after which both sides arranged talks. Any deal is expected to specifically include stablecoins—cryptographic tokens pegged to traditional currencies.
PIMCO Suggests Fed Pause MBS Reductions to Boost Housing Market. U.S. bond investment firm Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) stated on Tuesday that the Federal Reserve should consider halting the reduction of its mortgage-backed securities (MBS) holdings to boost the U.S. housing market
Since the start of the interest rate hike cycle in 2022, the Federal Reserve has gradually reduced its holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) on its balance sheet through quantitative tightening (QT), allowing the principal and interest payments of MBS to mature without reinvesting the proceeds. PIMCO noted in a report on Tuesday that over the past three years, the Federal Reserve has continuously reduced its MBS holdings, leading to an &#34;abnormally wide&#34; mortgage spread (the gap between Treasury yields and mortgage rates). As of last Friday, this spread was approximately 230 basis points, close to historical highs. This has also pushed up the average rate of the most common 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the U.S., currently at 6.35%. PIMCO's Chief Investment Officer of Non-Traditional Strategies, Mark Kiesel, and others wrote that reinvesting the principal and interest payments from MBS could have an effect on lowering mortgage rates comparable to, or even better than, rate cuts.
Castle Securities Strategist: U.S. Stocks May Face Short-Term Volatility but Strong Finish Expected by Year-End. Scott Rubner, head of equity and equity derivatives strategy at Castle Securities, stated that the current rally driving U.S. stocks to new highs may experience some volatility in the coming weeks but is expected to finish strongly by year-end. Rubner wrote that the S&amp;P 500 has risen 17% from its low earlier this year, with short-term risks including overvaluation, seasonal volatility common in September and October, and potential sell-offs by trend-following funds. However, these potential signs of weakness are unlikely to persist, as the tailwinds supporting the stock market—such as corporate spending in artificial intelligence and demand from retail investors—will continue to provide momentum for the market in the last few months of 2025. Rubner wrote, &#34;Maintain a positive outlook on structural demand, but hedge against short-term risks, as September to October remains a fragile window.&#34; He added that investors should view short-term pullbacks as buying opportunities.
【Individual Stock News】
U.S. Tech Giants Commit Over $40 Billion to Invest in the UK. Several large U.S. tech companies have announced plans to invest over $40 billion to expand AI infrastructure in the UK, which is a significant boost for the country, coinciding with Trump's state visit. Microsoft (MSFT.US) stated on Tuesday that it will invest $30 billion in AI infrastructure and existing operations in the UK by 2028, marking the company's largest financial commitment in the UK. Google (GOOG.US) announced it will invest approximately $6.8 billion in AI, R&amp;D, and related engineering in the UK over the next two years. Meanwhile, NVIDIA (NVDA.US), OpenAI, and UK company Nscale are collaborating to build AI infrastructure in the UK to meet OpenAI's computing needs. The project, called &#34;Stargate (UK),&#34; is expected to be located in the northeast of the UK, utilizing thousands of NVIDIA's Grace Blackwell Ultra graphics processing units. In other investments, AI cloud computing company CoreWeave (CRWV.US) plans to invest approximately $2.04 billion in AI data center capacity and operations in the UK. Salesforce announced it will reinvest $2 billion in its UK operations by 2030, while BlackRock will invest £500 million in data centers across the UK
【Major Ratings】
Bernstein: Initiated coverage on Apple (AAPL.US) with an Outperform rating and a target price of $290; lowered the target price for FedEx (FDX.US) from $249 to $247.
 UBS: Raised the gold target price for the end of 2025 to $3,800/ounce (previously $3,500/ounce) and expects it to reach $3,900/ounce by mid-2026 (previously $3,700/ounce).
ANZ: Raised the gold target price for the end of 2025 from $3,600/ounce to $3,800/ounce, expecting gold to reach nearly $4,000/ounce by June 2026.
Lombard Odier: Gold continues to be supported by multiple factors, raising the 12-month target price to $3,900/ounce

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Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indices paused their upward momentum, with the S&P 500 down 0.13% to 6606.76 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.27% to 45757.9 points, and the NASDAQ Composite Index down 0.07% to 22333.96 points. The market is awaiting a rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with the U.S. dollar index falling below 97 and gold prices breaking through $3700 per ounce for the first time. European stocks generally declined, with the German DAX30 index down 1.68%. Crude oil prices rose, with New York light crude oil futures closing at $64.52 per barrel

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Overnight U.S. Stocks | Three major indices pause their upward trend, gold prices break $3,700 for the first time, and the U.S. dollar index falls below 97