Guotai Junan Securities: Magnetic Levitation Compressors Have Superior Performance, AIDC Catalyzes Economic Upturn

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guojin Securities released a research report stating that in recent years, the global AIDC expansion combined with the increase in cabinet power density has catalyzed the rising demand for data center cooling. Magnetic levitation centrifugal refrigeration compressor units have superior performance, low motor power consumption, and low operating costs, which can help data centers reduce their PUE to 1.2. In the future, with the continued increase in global AI computing power investment, the market size for magnetic levitation compressors is expected to continue to expand, and it is recommended to pay attention to leading domestic manufacturers of magnetic levitation refrigeration compressors.

The main points of Guojin Securities are as follows:

AIDC cabinet computing power density upgrade drives high-performance cooling demand.

The density of AIDC computing power is high, with current single cabinet power consumption rising from 2-8kW to 20-50kW, and it may exceed 100kW in the future. If the large amount of heat generated during high power density operation cannot be efficiently dissipated in a timely manner, it will lead to excessive chip junction temperatures, resulting in performance throttling and decreased equipment reliability. Therefore, efficient cooling capability has become a key prerequisite for ensuring the quality of AIDC computing power output. At the same time, the continuous expansion of the global AIDC scale is expected to accelerate the rising demand for AIDC cooling in the future.

Magnetic levitation refrigeration compressors have leading performance, and AIDC is expected to catalyze continuous industry scale expansion.

(1) Chillers are the main equipment in data center cooling systems, providing the cooling source for the refrigeration system. Among them, the refrigeration compressor is the core component of the chiller, accounting for about half of the chiller's cost, and its performance affects the energy efficiency of the entire system. Magnetic levitation compressors use magnetic levitation bearings, which eliminate mechanical contact between the rotor and stator, avoiding mechanical friction losses caused by direct contact. Compared to screw units, the integrated part-load performance coefficient (IPLV) of magnetic levitation units improves by about 42%, motor power consumption is reduced by 30%, and annual electricity costs decrease by about 30%, making their performance more outstanding and helping data centers achieve a PUE reduction to 1.2, which is expected to become an important development direction for chiller compressors in the future.

(2) Currently, the high investment boom in the global AIDC field is expected to drive the continuous expansion of the magnetic levitation refrigeration compressor market. For example, leading manufacturer Danfoss of magnetic levitation refrigeration compressors stated that its data center-related business in China will triple in 2024, with an expected growth rate of about 50% in 2025. In the next three years, the demand for magnetic levitation compressors in Chinese data centers is expected to at least double. The high growth of Danfoss's revenue also confirms the high demand boom in the industry.

Competitive landscape: The global market is highly concentrated, and there is broad space for domestic substitution, with optimism about the global market share increase of domestic leaders.

(1) The industry has high technical barriers, and the global market structure is concentrated. Magnetic levitation refrigeration compressors involve core technologies such as two-stage series compression fluids, magnetic levitation bearings and their control, high-speed permanent magnet synchronous motors, high-frequency refrigerant inverters, and compressor control logic, as well as process difficulties in system cooling design, pressure-resistant casing design, and testing verification. A lack of mastery of these technologies can lead to product performance flaws or high costs, resulting in a lack of competitiveness. Danfoss is the global leader in magnetic levitation refrigeration compressors, with cumulative shipments exceeding 160,000 units and a global market share of 70%, indicating a concentrated global market structure. Currently, Danfoss's production capacity is tight, and its Jiaxing Haiyan factory in China (the second-largest magnetic levitation compressor production base globally) is operating at full capacity Among domestic enterprises, HANBELL and other domestic manufacturers have achieved breakthroughs in core technologies through continuous high R&D investment, and are expected to continuously promote the localization process and achieve an increase in global market share in the future, relying on cost advantages, deep binding with major customers, and continuous breakthroughs with new customers.

(2) Optimistic about the global market share increase of domestic leading manufacturers and high revenue growth in the data center field. HANBELL is the leader in China's magnetic levitation refrigeration compressor industry, currently achieving a single unit cooling capacity range of 125-900RT, leading domestically. HANBELL has a long-term deep cooperation with its refrigeration compressor customer TECO Electric & Machinery Co., Ltd., and has a joint venture company, Qingdao Century TECO. Recently, TECO Electric & Machinery Co., Ltd. and Foxconn reached a strategic alliance through stock swaps, and in the future, they will leverage the advantages of TECO and Foxconn in external power infrastructure and internal equipment such as servers to cooperate deeply, providing customers with modular data center products, electromechanical engineering services, and one-stop solutions. With TECO Electric & Machinery Co., Ltd. focusing on the data center business, in the first half of 2025, HANBELL's sales to TECO Electric & Machinery Co., Ltd. reached 13.38 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60%. In addition, MOON-TECH is a leading manufacturer of magnetic levitation centrifugal chillers in China, and its subsidiary Dunham-Bush is among the top 5 chiller manufacturers in the world, capable of self-supplying compressors and has over a decade of experience serving data centers, providing primary side cooling source equipment for data centers. It has served several domestic data centers, including Tianhe-2 and China Unicom's Xi'an data center, with rich relevant experience.

Risk Warning: AIDC construction may fall short of expectations, customer expansion in the data center field may not meet expectations, and market competition may intensify