CITIC Securities: The liquor industry is rapidly bottoming out, optimistic about the bottom configuration opportunities in the liquor sector

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, CITIC Securities has released a research report stating that the liquor industry is currently bottoming out. Considering various factors such as current inventory, prices, policy impacts, recovery of consumption scenarios, and the financial reports released by listed companies, CITIC Securities predicts that the fundamental bottom of the industry is expected to appear in the third quarter of 2025. It is anticipated that the third quarter of this year will be the stage with the greatest pressure on industry sales, prices, and market confidence. The second half of this year is expected to be the period with the greatest pressure on the financial performance of liquor listed companies. Taking into account the subsequent clear trend of gradual recovery, there are optimistic views on the bottom configuration opportunities in the liquor industry. The beer sector has a relatively low base in the second half of the year, and CITIC Securities expects stable performance in the third quarter reports.

CITIC Securities' main points are as follows:

Valuations have fallen to long-term lows, and shareholder returns have increased to enhance investment safety margins.

From January 1, 2025, to September 12, 2025, the overall stock price of the liquor sector has increased by 1.1%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 13.8 percentage points. This week (September 8 to September 12, 2025), JGJC (+5.57%), Gu Jing (+3.78%), and Shanxi Fenjiu (+3.11%) were the top three liquor companies in terms of growth. Currently, the overall price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the liquor sector has fallen to 19.9x, which is at the 60%/26%/16%/10%/17% percentiles for 1 year/3 years/5 years/10 years/since listing, respectively. The overall price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the beer sector is 22.8x, which is at the 3%/4%/2%/1%/1% percentiles for 1 year/3 years/5 years/10 years/since listing.

Liquor: Leading companies emphasize high-quality development, and the launch of low-alcohol products highlights their determination to adapt.

The liquor industry is currently in the bottoming phase of the third major cycle in the past thirty years. We believe that this round of the liquor cycle shares many similarities with the liquor industry from 2012 to 2016 in terms of economic environment, price and inventory trends, financial performance of listed companies, changes in industry policies, and capital market performance. It is expected to gradually experience a clearing phase followed by recovery. In terms of rhythm, based on the performance briefing of Moutai after the interim report and the speeches of Wuliangye at the liquor expo, leading companies will continue to optimize market strategies, actively maintain the resilience of channel ecosystems, and ensure overall market stability and healthy collaboration among channels. From the perspective of customer groups, liquor companies are increasingly mentioning young people and seeking breakthroughs in taste and scenarios. Shede, Wuliangye, and Gu Jing have successively launched new 29° products, reflecting an unprecedented emphasis on developing new scenarios and customer groups.

Expectations for improved sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, as distributors adapt to the new normal.

According to industry media reports such as Jiuyejia and Jiushuo, we judge that the overall terminal sales of the industry have been gradually recovering since August. With the approach of the peak season for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, various manufacturers are actively introducing various payment and banquet policies to boost industry confidence. We expect the decline during the double festival to narrow to -10% to 0%. High-end liquor: From the Moutai performance briefing, Guizhou Moutai also indicated that terminal sales in August showed signs of recovery compared to June and July. Distributors of Moutai, Wuliangye, and others are gradually adapting to the new normal, achieving stable inventory digestion; for mid-range products: liquor factories are focusing more on promoting sales, with payment rhythms slower than the same period, and inventory entering a digestion cycle Real Estate Liquor: Strengthening the base market and using digitalization and other means to enhance operational efficiency.

Risk Factors:

Macroeconomic consumer demand is below expectations; intensified competition in the liquor and beer industries; core product price market performance in the liquor industry is below expectations; channel inventory risks in the liquor industry; slower-than-expected recovery in dining consumption; food safety issues, etc.

Investment Strategy:

We believe the liquor industry is rapidly bottoming out. Considering various factors such as current inventory, prices, policy impacts, recovery of consumption scenarios, and financial reports released by listed companies, we anticipate that the fundamental bottom of the industry is likely to appear in the third quarter of 2025. We expect that this year's third quarter will be the stage with the greatest pressure on industry sales, prices, and market confidence, and that the second half of this year will see the most significant pressure on the financial performance of liquor listed companies. Additionally, considering the clear trend of gradual recovery thereafter, we are optimistic about the bottom configuration opportunities in the liquor industry. The beer industry has a relatively low base in the second half of the year, and we expect stable performance in the third quarter reports