Dongfang Caifu Securities: The travel popularity during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival may reach a new high, and outbound travel bookings continue to improve

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Dongfang Caifu Securities released a research report stating that, according to travel data insights, the search volume for travel during the entire National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in 2025 is expected to increase by more than 20% year-on-year; as of September 12, data from Fliggy shows that the booking volume for travel products such as flights, hotels, tickets, and car rentals has significantly surpassed last year and the year before, which also had an 8-day holiday. In terms of outbound travel, according to ZXLY, as of September 8, the number of outbound travel products for the National Day holiday has increased by 75% year-on-year, and the number of travelers has increased by 130% year-on-year; among them, the number of travelers to Europe has increased by 80% year-on-year, North America by 207% year-on-year, and Asia by 380% year-on-year (according to travel data insights, the popularity of Seoul and Jeju Island has rapidly increased).

The main viewpoints of Dongfang Caifu Securities are as follows:

The combination of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays in 2025 will result in a total of 8 days off, allowing for an extension from "3 days off" to "12 days off."

According to travel data insights, the search volume for travel during the entire National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in 2025 is expected to increase by more than 20% year-on-year; as of September 12, data from Fliggy shows that the booking volume for travel products such as flights, hotels, tickets, and car rentals has significantly surpassed last year and the year before, which also had an 8-day holiday. According to TONGCHENGTRAVEL, the main purpose of users' travel is tourism, accounting for 59%, while returning home to visit relatives accounts for about 29%, with the remainder for concerts/sports events and business travel.

Flights: International route orders are showing a clear recovery, while domestic route prices remain relatively stable.

Volume: According to Hanglv Zongheng, as of September 8, the booking volume for domestic flights during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays exceeded 3.26 million tickets, an increase of 26% year-on-year; the booking volume for inbound and outbound flights exceeded 1.16 million tickets, an increase of 15% year-on-year.

Price: According to travel data insights and TONGCHENGTRAVEL, as of September 8, the average price for domestic flights during the National Day holiday is basically flat compared to the same period last year, while the average price for international one-way tickets has increased year-on-year.

Hotels: High-quality hotel bookings are in high demand.

According to data from Travel Rankings, as of August 25, the booking volume for popular domestic hotels has increased by 58% year-on-year. According to TONGCHENGTRAVEL, as of September 11, the booking demand for high-quality hotels during the holiday has increased by more than 20% year-on-year.

Outbound travel: Benefiting from visa-free policies in certain regions, the popularity of South Korea and the Middle East and Africa has rapidly increased.

Ctrip shows that the number of people booking visa services for National Day travel has increased by nearly 30% year-on-year. As of early September, the number of reservations for long-haul outbound travel during the Spring and Autumn holiday has increased by nearly 50% year-on-year. According to ZXLY, as of September 8, the number of outbound travel products for the National Day holiday has increased by 75% year-on-year, and the number of travelers has increased by 130% year-on-year; among them, the number of travelers to Europe has increased by 80% year-on-year, North America by 207% year-on-year, and Asia by 380% year-on-year (according to travel data insights, the popularity of Seoul and Jeju Island has rapidly increased), and the Middle East and Africa by 216% year-on-year (according to Qunar, the booking volume for flights to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan has increased by 3.3 times and 2.3 times year-on-year, respectively).

Investment Recommendations

With the increase in travel popularity, it is recommended to pay attention to the OTA sector, including TONGCHENGTRAVEL (00780) and Ctrip Group-S (09961); for the ice and snow industry with high recognition, consider Changbai Mountain (603099.SH) and Dalian Shengya (600593.SH); for tourism retail-related companies, consider China Duty Free Group (01880) and Wangfujing (600859.SH); for the downstream dining sector in the travel chain, pay attention to Yum China (09987), Gu Ming (01364), and Mixue Group (02097), among others Risk Warning

Macroeconomic fluctuations affect residents' purchasing power; changes in visa-free policies, etc