Open Source Securities: API companies accelerate the layout of innovative drugs, and the AI + medical layout is gradually deepening

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Kaiyuan Securities released a research report stating that the domestic raw material pharmaceutical industry is at the bottom of the cycle, with some companies actively laying out innovative drug tracks and continuously expanding their company ceilings, expected to enter a harvest period. The domestic blood products industry is also at the bottom of the cycle, with accelerated industry mergers and acquisitions. In 2025, the controlling shareholder of Tiantan Biological will acquire PLBIO, marking the beginning of mergers and reorganizations among medium and large blood product companies. The firm expects the mergers and acquisitions in the blood products industry to enter an accelerated phase. Affected by industry policies, the domestic medical services industry has been significantly impacted and is in a clearing phase. The firm believes that companies with strong brands, strong operational capabilities, and leading AI layouts are likely to emerge from difficulties first.

Key points from Kaiyuan Securities are as follows:

Raw Material Pharmaceutical Sector: Innovation Transformation is Timely

The raw material pharmaceutical industry has experienced nearly four years of cyclical decline, with prices of various products dropping to a stage where some leading enterprises are at a loss, and the industry is overall at a bottom area, with prices of products such as sartans, heparins, and animal health products reaching historical lows. Due to the significant decline in prices of anti-infection products and some companies increasing R&D investment, the revenue and net profit of the raw material pharmaceutical sector are showing a downward trend in the first half of 2025.

Domestic raw material pharmaceutical companies are actively transforming into innovative drugs. Huahai Pharmaceutical focuses on oncology and autoimmune fields, with HB0034 in the application stage for listing, HB0017 in Phase III clinical trials, and HB0025 for endometrial cancer and non-small cell lung cancer in Phase II and III stages. Borui Pharmaceutical's BGM0504 is in Phase III clinical trials. OncoOne's ALK-N001 is in Phase I clinical trials, and ALK-N002 is in the preclinical stage. Federal Pharmaceutical's UBT251 injection is in Phase II clinical trials, UBT37034 injection has obtained IND approval in the U.S., and UBT48128 oral formulation is in the preclinical stage.

Vaccine and Blood Products Sector: New Technologies and Products Accelerating Layout

Vaccines: Due to the decline in the number of newborns and changes in the competitive landscape, the vaccine industry has shown a continuous downward trend in performance. Some companies are gradually laying out new technologies and products. Olin Biological's gold-staphylococcus vaccine is expected to enter clinical unblinding in early 2026, likely becoming the first and only company in the world to submit a listing application. CanSino's pneumonia series products are expected to accelerate their layout, and the company is gradually laying out new tumor vaccines. Recently, Kangtai Biological announced its layout for innovative vaccines targeting drug-resistant bacteria.

Blood Products: Affected by the inventory levels of blood products and the demand within hospitals being suppressed by medical insurance, the revenue and net profit scale of the blood products sector are expected to decline in 2025, with the blood products industry at the bottom of the cycle. As leading companies in the industry accelerate mergers and reorganizations, the industry's concentration is expected to further increase, and the industry price system is expected to gradually return to a stable level.

Medical Services: AI + Medical, Expected to Accelerate Quality Improvement and Efficiency in the Medical Services Industry

Affected by DRGs and the consumption environment, the performance of the medical services sector has declined. The core competitiveness of the medical services industry lies in acquiring and cultivating quality doctors and hospital operation management. The supply of quality doctors is limited, and the industry is gradually turning to the use of AI technology to replicate the rich experience of quality doctors, which is expected to significantly enhance the patient coverage of quality doctors, rapidly improve the diagnostic and treatment capabilities of gradually junior doctors, thereby leading to an improvement in the industry's profitability Risk Warning: Risks of policy changes, intensified market competition, and failures in drug clinical research and development