The market may lose key guidance! The probability of a U.S. government shutdown soars to 70%, and the Department of Labor plans to suspend the release of non-farm and CPI reports

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, predictive market data shows that the probability of the U.S. federal government shutting down this Wednesday has risen to about 70%, as investors increasingly doubt whether Congress can reach an agreement at the last minute to maintain government operating funds.

Data from the Kalshi and Polymarket platforms indicate that trading bets on a government shutdown have significantly increased after the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) announced that it would not release the highly anticipated non-farm payroll report this Friday if the government shuts down. Just last weekend, the probability of a shutdown was around 50%.

Last Friday, the DOL released a 73-page contingency plan stating that if the government shuts down, it will enter a "suspension of news and data releases" state, retaining only a few essential functions. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the DOL will completely suspend operations, and all planned economic data releases during this period will be delayed or canceled.

This means that the September non-farm payroll report originally scheduled for release this Friday will be postponed, which is an important reference indicator for the Federal Reserve ahead of its October meeting.

Additionally, the weekly initial jobless claims report released every Thursday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) set to be released on October 15 will also be affected. The CPI is the last inflation data before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on October 28-29, and if it cannot be released on time, the market will lose a key guide.

The BLS typically releases more than a dozen economic reports each month, covering import and export prices, wage data, and other important indicators related to consumers and employment. If the government shutdown continues, the data collection for these reports will also come to a complete halt. The DOL noted in the document that the BLS website will not be updated during this period, and if technical failures occur, there will be no recovery.

The current deadlock stems from disagreements between the two parties in Congress over healthcare policy in the appropriations bill. The Democrats insist that any bill to avoid a shutdown must include a provision to extend tax subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, which are set to expire at the end of 2025; while the Republican leadership believes that negotiations over healthcare subsidies should be discussed after passing a short-term appropriations bill to avoid a government shutdown.

House Democratic leader Jeffries criticized the Republicans for "playing political games with the health of the American people" and emphasized that the Democrats "will not support any partisan Republican spending bill."

President Trump met with the four main congressional leaders on Monday afternoon at 3 PM Eastern Time, including Jeffries, Senate Minority Leader Schumer, House Speaker Johnson, and Senate Majority Leader Thune, to discuss possible solutions to avoid a government shutdown. To pass a temporary appropriations bill, at least seven Democratic senators need to vote in favor of the Republican version.

The Trump administration instructed federal agencies last week to prepare for large-scale permanent layoffs if Congress cannot reach an agreement. This differs from previous government shutdowns, which typically involved temporary unpaid leave for federal employees, indicating that this shutdown could have more far-reaching social and economic impacts