Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Spot gold breaks through $3,900 to reach a new high, future upward trend may exceed expectations (with concept stocks)

According to Zhitong Finance APP, spot gold maintained a strong start this week. On October 6, spot gold quickly rose, reaching $3,920 per ounce, with an intraday increase of 0.35%, setting a new historical high. It took less than 10 days to break through the $3,800 mark for the first time. Goldman Sachs previously stated that due to strong interest from private investors, there is still room for gold prices to rise further, potentially exceeding the bank's expectations. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, including Daan Struyven, noted that the inflow of funds into gold ETFs was unexpectedly strong, surpassing previous model predictions.

Looking at the gold price trend for 2025, the market shows a wave-like upward trend. Before the end of April, influenced by various factors such as international situations and tariffs, gold prices experienced a significant rise. Subsequently, the market entered a months-long adjustment period. However, since August, gold prices have gained momentum again, and market enthusiasm has continued to rise. According to COMEX gold (gold futures contracts), this round of gold price fluctuations reflects investors' reassessment of gold assets.

Fundamentally, the changes in gold prices are closely related to interest-bearing assets represented by the U.S. dollar. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle directly affects the opportunity cost of interest-bearing assets. Historical data shows that during periods of recession and stagflation with rising unemployment rates in the U.S., gold has outperformed other assets. During economic recessions, the overall capital return rate declines, and the value of gold and cash as safe-haven assets becomes increasingly prominent; while in stagflation scenarios, the attractiveness of physical gold further increases.

Currently, the Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts reflect the pressures facing the U.S. economy, and the onset of a new round of recession or stagflation cannot be ignored. Lower interest rates will undoubtedly support the rise in gold prices. According to institutional forecasts, the Federal Reserve may take measures to cut interest rates in September. In the 10 interest rate cut cycles since 1980, gold prices rose in 7 of them, demonstrating gold's stability as a safe-haven asset and its ability to resist inflation. Additionally, the complex and ever-changing global geopolitical situation has further enhanced the investment value of gold, with various international emergencies increasing investors' demand for gold as a safe haven, highlighting gold's value as a traditional safe-haven asset during turbulent times.

As the trend of central banks diversifying their foreign exchange reserve allocations becomes increasingly evident, the status of gold is also rising. Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the proportion of gold in central bank reserves has continued to increase, surpassing the euro, making it the second-largest reserve asset globally. As of August 2025, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 10 consecutive months, with the balance of gold reserves accounting for 7.64% of total foreign exchange reserves, setting a historical high.

Goldman Sachs, which remains bullish on gold in the long term, stated that due to strong interest from private investors, there is still room for gold prices to rise further, potentially exceeding the bank's expectations. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, including Daan Struyven, noted that the inflow of funds into gold ETFs was unexpectedly strong, surpassing previous model predictions. The likelihood of private investors heavily investing in gold presents "huge upside risks" to analysts' forecasts. They originally expected gold prices to reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 and $4,300 per ounce by the end of next year China Galaxy Securities released a research report stating that the performance of the A-share non-ferrous metal industry maintained high growth in the first half of the year, further establishing a positive trend for the industry. The expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is rising, driving global funds to accelerate the purchase of gold; coupled with the unclear independence of the Federal Reserve, this may trigger more risk-averse funds to allocate to gold, pushing up gold prices, and it is recommended to pay attention to leading gold stocks.

Related Concept Stocks:

Zijin Mining (02899): In the first half of 2025, Zijin Mining achieved operating revenue of 167.711 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.50%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 23.292 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 50%; this is the first time in the company's history that mid-term net profit exceeded 20 billion yuan. During the same period, Zijin Mining's production of copper, gold, zinc (lead), and silver was 570,000 tons, 41 tons, 200,000 tons, and 223 tons, respectively, with year-on-year changes of 10%, 17%, -9%, and 6%. Thanks to the simultaneous increase in volume and price, as well as cost optimization, Zijin Mining's overall gross profit margin for mineral products increased by 3 percentage points year-on-year to 60.23%.

Zhaojin Mining (01818): In the first half of 2025, Zhaojin Mining's revenue was approximately 6.973 billion yuan, an increase of about 50.69% compared to the same period last year; net profit was approximately 1.777 billion yuan, an increase of about 144.58% year-on-year; profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 1.44 billion yuan, an increase of about 160.44% year-on-year.

SD-GOLD (01787): In the first half of 2025, SD-GOLD achieved operating revenue of 56.766 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.01%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 2.808 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102.98%. In the first half of the year, the company promoted stable growth, improved quality and efficiency, pushed for reforms, strengthened innovation, and prevented risks, achieving historical highs in gold production and major economic indicators. Among them, the production of gold was 24.71 tons, and the sales of self-produced gold were 23.60 tons.

Lingbao Gold (03330): In the first half of 2025, Lingbao Gold achieved revenue of 7.793 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 82.02%. Profit attributable to shareholders was 664 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 335.28%. During the reporting period, the group produced approximately 10,821 kilograms of gold ingots, an increase of approximately 2,870 kilograms compared to the same period last year