ZhaoYin International: US economic slowdown, government shutdown may end within 2 weeks, Federal Reserve expected to pause interest rate cuts in October
ZhaoYin International released a report stating that the U.S. government shutdown is expected to end within 2 weeks, with market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in October at 96.2%. Due to improved employment data and inflation above target, the Federal Reserve is expected to pause rate cuts in October. Signs of economic slowdown are evident, with the September services PMI stagnating and the manufacturing PMI's contraction rate slowing. The short-term shutdown has a minimal impact on the market, but if it exceeds 2 weeks, it may increase market risk aversion
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, CMB International has released a report stating that the U.S. government shutdown is expected to end within two weeks, and the Federal Reserve's October meeting may still reference September data. Currently, the market's expectation for an interest rate cut in October is 96.2%. Due to improved employment data while inflation remains significantly above target, the bank believes the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts in October. As the economy continues to slow, the Federal Reserve may cut rates again in December.
The U.S. services PMI for September stagnated, with both supply and demand weakening. Employment saw a slight rebound, but the price index remains high. The manufacturing PMI's contraction has eased, with weakened demand, a rebound in production and employment, and a slight decrease in the price index. The inventory index has contracted further, as companies continue to consume previously accumulated inventory.
The PMI indicates an economic slowdown, with stable employment but significant price pressures. Most respondents mentioned the impact of tariffs on costs and weak demand. The October government shutdown will lead to 700,000 federal employees being furloughed without pay, while the White House freezes nearly $30 billion in transfer payments. Each week of shutdown is expected to drag GDP down by 0.1-0.2 percentage points. The short-term impact of the shutdown on the market is relatively small, but if it exceeds two weeks, it may elevate market risk aversion.
Non-farm data for this month has not yet been released, but the total number of first-time unemployment claims across states shows a decline in first-time claims at the end of September compared to the beginning of the month, indicating that the labor market has not weakened further
