CICC: The travel trend during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays is strong, with long-distance travel depth and emotional experiences advancing together

According to the report released by China International Capital Corporation (CICC), based on data from the Ministry of Transport, the increase in the number of travelers during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday compared to the May Day holiday has decreased by 1.7 percentage points, possibly due to an increase in staggered travel. Although the growth rate of travelers during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday has slightly declined compared to May Day, it remains relatively good. The firm expects the RevPAR growth rate of the hotel industry during the holiday to continue the month-on-month improvement trend seen in September. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent year-on-year trend of duty-free sales in Hainan and the potential demand increase brought by Hainan Free Trade Port policies. Additionally, it is suggested to focus on companies that are expected to reach a turning point, show marginal improvement, or benefit from service consumption policies.

CICC's main viewpoints are as follows:

Tourism: The growth rate of travelers during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday has slightly declined compared to the May Day holiday but remains relatively good; long-distance deep travel and emotional experience payments are progressing together; inbound and outbound tourism is driven by dual wheels.

According to data from the Ministry of Transport, during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday (2025/10/1-2025/10/8), the average year-on-year increase in cross-regional personnel flow across society is +6.2% (with railway/road (mainly self-driving)/waterway/civil aviation passenger volume showing year-on-year increases of +2.6%/6.5%/4.2%/3.4%), and the increase in the number of travelers has decreased by 1.7 percentage points compared to May Day, possibly due to an increase in staggered travel. Long-distance deep travel and emotional experience payments are progressing together. In terms of destinations, some top tourist destinations have seen an increase in the number of visitors (for example, the Changbai Mountain scenic area benefited from the opening of the Shenyang-Baihe high-speed railway, receiving a year-on-year increase of +18.95% in visitor numbers in the first four days of the holiday). In terms of inbound and outbound travel, according to CADAS, from October 1 to October 7, international flight passenger flow increased by +15.5% year-on-year; data from Qunar shows that the number of domestic flight tickets booked using non-Chinese passports during the holiday increased by +33% year-on-year.

Hotels: Expected to continue the month-on-month improvement trend seen in September, with a focus on the recovery trend of business travel after the holiday.

1. From October 1 to October 7, air passenger traffic increased by +3% year-on-year, which is a narrowing compared to the May Day holiday's year-on-year increase (+11%); 2) From booking data, as of September 23, the overall booking rate of hotels under Huazhu's brands increased by +3 percentage points year-on-year. STR data shows that in the four weeks of September, the RevPAR of the hotel industry in mainland China year-on-year was -13.7%/+7%/+15.2%/-4.1%, and the firm believes that under the influence of a low base (the RevPAR of the industry decreased by 10% during the National Day holiday in 2024) and the growth of leisure demand during this year's dual holiday, the RevPAR growth rate of the industry during this year's dual holiday is expected to continue the month-on-month improvement trend seen in September, with a focus on the recovery trend of business travel after the holiday.

Duty-Free: Sanya Duty-Free City’s single-day sales exceeded 120 million yuan on October 5.

During the dual holiday (October 1-7), the average number of passengers transported by Haikou Meilan Airport increased by 7% year-on-year; data released by Sanya shows that on October 5, the single-day sales of cdf Sanya International Duty-Free City exceeded 120 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60%. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent year-on-year trend of duty-free sales in Hainan and the potential demand increase brought by Hainan Free Trade Port policies.

Dining: Steady growth in dining consumption during the holiday.

Data from the Ministry of Commerce shows that in the first four days of the holiday, the sales of key retail and dining enterprises nationwide increased by 3.3% year-on-year (vs. +6.3% year-on-year during the May Day holiday, +4.1% year-on-year during the Spring Festival holiday) The bank estimates that same-store sales of green tea during the holiday period remained basically flat, while same-store sales of Cha Bai Dao increased year-on-year.

Valuation and Recommendations

Recommend Luckin Coffee, Gu Ming, Mixue Group, Atour, Yum China, and Dashihua. It is suggested to pay attention to companies that are expected to reach a turning point, show marginal improvement, or benefit from service consumption policies, including H World, BTG Hotels, Beijing Renli, Kelly Services, Tongdao Liepin, Haidilao, China Duty Free Group, Songcheng Performance, Hong Kong Travel, and Emei Mountain.

Risks

Policies and effects weaker than expected; intensified competition; companies failing to enhance management capabilities